Despite All Bad Intentions...

First of all, I want to thank those of you who checked out my live-blog of the fight over at The Sporting Blog. It was a big success and I appreciate your support.

During that live-blog, I scored the fight 117-111, only giving Jermain rounds 2, 3 and 10. I had a sense even then that it would be closer on the scorecards because, as Manny Steward put it, "the crowd gets excited about (Jermain's) big wide punches and maybe the judges will too." And so the judges were swayed somewhat, but not significantly - the final cards read 117-111, 116-112 and 115-113, all for Pavlik.

Watching and blogging at the same time is a strange and somewhat frantic way to enjoy a fight, and given all the press afterward, with many people either saying that it was a draw or that they had Jermain winning it outright, I had a feeling that when I watched it again I would probably still have Pavlik on top, but by a closer margin.

That didn't happen. I just watched the fight a second time, and though my final score was the same - 117-111 for Pavlik - I did change my opinion on two rounds: I gave the 3rd to Pavlik and the sixth to Jermain.

Harold Lederman gave voice to the way many pundits saw the fight when somewhere around the 7th or 8th round he said, "it comes down to who do you like, the harder hitter or the busier guy?" Pavlik was quite obviously the busier guy, and at the time I had a suspicion that he was the harder hitter as well, a suspicion that was confirmed by a second viewing.

In a football game, if Team A has the ball for 50 minutes and Team B has it for ten, Team A is going to win the game 99 times out of a hundred. With that possession differential, the only way that Team B is ever going to win is to return some punts and connect on some bombs for touchdowns. Now we all saw Jermain throwing bombs on Saturday night, but myself, I didn't see him scoring any touchdowns. Watching it again, I can't tell you how many times Lamps would yell, "BIG RIGHT HAND FOR TAYLOR" and I would slo-mo the tape and see a roundhouse right that landed flush on Pavlik's left glove. Jermain's physicality and the way he throws those go-for-broke haymakers really influence the crowd, which then influences the judges. If you've ever been at a fight before, you know how much the crowd plays a role in how you see the action. There's a big roar, the energy spikes, and suddenly it seems like something important just happened.

To my eyes, most of Jermain's flurries that brought cheers Saturday night had very little effect on Kelly Pavlik at all. Even when he did connect Pavlik took it well cause he has a great beard and, truth be told, for all the energy in his shots Jermain doesn't hit that hard.

Meanwhile, on Pavlik's end, he jabbed Jermain to death. He won the fight with the left jab, a point that Manny Steward made several times. It was by far the most consistent and cleanly landed punch of the bout and it did major damage, a tale that was told mightily by the condition of Jermain's face come the final bell.

One thing I picked up the second time around that I didn't see at the time was a telling exchange between Jermain and trainer Ozell Nelson in the corner after the 9th round. Ozell said, "All right, it's round 10, time to work, it's work time baby," and Jermain responded with a big "YEAH." For me, it was very tough to give Jermain a round from the third through the ninth (I gave him the sixth because he landed two of his best shots of the fight) because he was so inactive. But after hearing that pre-10th-round corner conversation, I started to think that Jermain's relative inactivity in the middle rounds was a conscious strategy to keep himself out of harm's way early and to conserve energy for a big late push. He went out and fought gangbusters in the 10th, upped his work-rate considerably and won the round going away, one of only two rounds in the whole fight that I thought he won conclusively.

And here's the amazing thing - with about 30 seconds left, he also was winning round 11. But that's when Pavlik caught him with a big straight right flush on the jaw, a punch Kelly landed at will in the first fight and only rarely in the second. But that one changed the momentum immediately - Jermain backed straight into the ropes with his gloves on his face and Pavlik then wound up and connected with a huge right to the body, a punch that everybody talked about later, one that very clearly took the life out of Taylor.

All credit to Jermain, though - he was completely done in the last round, shaky legs and all, and yet he relied on guts and desperation to hold on and even make the round competitive at times. As you all know, I've badmouthed Jermain as a fighter many times here on No Mas and like many people I predicted he'd go down early on Saturday night. But with the effort and heart he put on display in there, I'm very happy to be wrong and give credit where credit is due. He fought a tremendous bout, to my mind the best of his career. He was patient, he consistently threw much shorter punches than he usually does and often threw them right off his face, and for the most part he neutralized Pavlik's money-punch, the straight right, neutralized it with head movement and a nifty little slip low to the left with a left-hook counter to the body or uppercut to the chin. He also avoided one of his cardinal sins, going to the ropes when he's tired, a habit that got his face rearranged by both Winky Wright and Pavlik.

In conclusion, getting knocked out by Pavlik last September looks like it may have been the best thing that ever happened to Jermain, boxing-wise. We all knew he had tremendous natural abilities, but he stubbornly seemed to resist developing as a skilled boxer. And in retrospect, it's easy to understand why - hell, on raw talent alone he was the undefeated and undisputed middleweight champion. I can imagine Jermain thinking to himself, "if it ain't broke don't break it." But Pavlik, well, Pavlik broke it, and Jermain finally went out to the woodshed and did some work. On Saturday, I saw the beginning of the next phase of his career, where he applies his frightening physical gifts with intelligence, patience and skill. If he stays on that path, he'll be a champion again no doubt, and he just may beat Pavlik in their inevitable third fight.

As for the Ghost, what can you say? Some people are saying that his stock fell with this result - myself, I thought it rose. Prior to the first fight with Jermain, we already knew that he could knock the crap out of people if they let him. But we didn't know just how smart a fighter he could be, something we do know now. I doubt he expected such a savvy performance from Jermain in the rematch, but he made the necessary adjustments, stayed patient and steady to grind out a decisive victory over a very dangerous opponent, one who was fighting the best bout of his career. Right now, I think the sky's the limit for Kelly Pavlik. I only hope he can stick around at 160 long enough to make his mark in history as a great middleweight champion.

(P.S. - I've got some more random thoughts on the fight posted today over at The Sporting Blog.)