Ghost of a Chance

Here is what Jermain would have us believe is the whole story of Pavlik/Taylior I - he didn't train hard enough. In this week's pressers, Pavlik and his trainer Jack Loew each have pointed out that prior to the first fight, Jermain was boasting that he'd just had the best camp of his life and was in better shape than ever before, etc. Now, however, Taylor claims that was all hype, that he and Manny Steward weren't clicking, that he was soft with the complacency of a champion but now he's hungry again so watch out. Eye of the tiger, whatnot.

I bring this up because as I wade through the reams of text being written this week to hype the rematch, this is really the only significant narrative that anyone has to offer about why the second fight might be different than the first. No one's making that much about the catch weight of 166 as an advantage for either man, and rightfully so. They both have big frames for middleweights, they both clearly struggle to make 160 and thus both probably will benefit from those extra six pounds. And when Jermain is asked how he will approach Pavlik differently this time around, every answer pretty much boils down to - "I'm training harder cause last time I wasn't ready." As for Pavlik, well, he's not planning on doing anything differently, which seems like an excellent approach on his end.

The only other angle I've read on why Taylor will fare better in this fight is more of a boxing writer's historical argument. It goes a little something like this - usually when a great fight has a rematch, the guy who lost the first one wins the second one. The examples I've seen cited to support this run from Graziano/Zale to Ali/Frazier to Leonard/Duran to Bowe/Holyfield.

But this line of thinking is flawed from the outset, because it's based on a complete misinterpretation of Pavlik/Taylor I. All of the fights mentioned above were indeed great ones, some of the greatest ever, and they were great largely because they were fought by men who were very evenly matched. Now, I agree that the first Pavlik/Taylor bout belongs in an elite category of fight, but nevertheless, I don't think the two men were evenly matched, not by a longshot. In fact, I actually think the way the bout turned out proved just how enormous a mismatch it was.

I've watched the first fight three times this week, and of course I watched the Countdown show, and here's what I gleaned from my efforts. Pavlik destroyed Jermain in round one - I honestly don't think Taylor would have survived past the fourth had the pace and tenor of the bout continued in the same vein. Jermain was tight, anxious, wide with lunging, ineffective punches - he didn't land a meaningful shot the entire round and wasted a ton of energy nevertheless. Meanwhile it took Pavlik about 20 seconds to find his target, and when he did... WHAM WHAM WHAM... double jab/right hand, double jab/right hand. Calm, accurate, a freakin stealth bomber.

And so we come to the much ballyhooed round two, which started in similar fashion to round one. At this point, Pavlik looked cocky, almost shocked at how easy a time he was having in there. Jermain's punches weren't that difficult to dodge or block, and even when they landed they did no damage, being the off-balance, looping haymakers that are Taylor's trademark. Meanwhile, Kelly's sledgehammer right was like a magnet to Jermain's left jaw. So when Taylor strung together a sudden flurry of his wild, wide shots, most of which Pavlik blocked with his gloves, Kelly heard the crowd go apeshit as if something important had just happened, and he thought, "man, don't they see? these shots are nothing... I could take these all night... they're not even landin..." and he lowered his hands and stuck out his chin to prove his point.

That was a mistake. Jermain immediately connected with his only huge, clean shot of the night right on Kelly's chin, and followed it with another roundhouse to Pavlik's ear, and the Ghost took a walk down queer street. Much has been made of how close Jermain was to winning the first bout, and watching it in retrospect I'm shocked at how true that is, and why it is. Pavlik was the infinitely better fighter in that ring that night and he almost blew the moment he'd been waiting for his entire life because he was clowning. I mean, can you imagine how he would have felt if he had gotten counted out that night?

Of course, he survived, a testament to the bedrock ruggedness of the guy that should strike fear into the heart of anyone who faces him. He held on for dear life, and by the beginning of the third round his wits were completely back and he was onto business as usual. The rest of the fight reminded me a little of Mayweather/Hatton, because like Hatton, Jermain is frenetic in the ring and his punches are, if rarely effective, dynamic to watch. All in all, even when he's not getting much done, Jermain often gives the illusion of great ferocity, a fact that's helped him his whole career. Meanwhile, Pavlik often looks like he's not doing much at all when in fact his straight laser shots are inflicting great damage. There was an exchange in the sixth round that really told the tale for me - Jermain got off with a flurry of looping punches that mostly bounced off Pavlik's gloves, brought a big roar from the crowd, and then Pavlik countered with a jab and one right hand straight down the pike that found Jermain's button and ever so slightly buckled his legs. That was really the overture of the 7th round symphony, and it also told the story of these two fighters in a nutshell - a meaningless display that excites the fans from one guy, followed by precise shots that take a great toll from the other.

In conclusion, I don't think Jermain was in bad physical shape going into that first fight - I think he was in tremendous shape. Watch it again and count how many clean, hard shots he takes right on the chin, shots from a born puncher that have flattened other men. He took a severe beating that night - I-berg and I were right on the walkway as he exited the ring, and he was weaving like a drunk on his way back to the dressing room. Eyes almost completely closed. Really, it's a testament to the kind of condition he was in that he managed to hang around so long.

And remember this was a pounding he received was from a guy who himself stepped into a big one, a fluke, but a costly fluke, one that had dire consequences. One thing that has shone through this week for me in otherwise largely inscrutable press-conference performances from Pavlik is that he's feeling the pressure - of expectations, of Youngstown, of the magnitude of the event itself. I doubt it will effect him negatively - he's already proven that he can handle big situations, get his blood pressure high and still stay cool. But one thing you can be certain he'll be doing differently on Saturday night is NOT sticking his chin at Jermain and begging for death.

As for Jermain, check this out: "I'm not looking to go in there with a strategy," Taylor said. "It's going to be a fight, all 12 rounds. I'm going straight to him, all 12 rounds. He gets knocked out, I get knocked out, it don't matter. I'm going straight to him."

Myself, if I were Jermain and I'd gotten utterly wrecked by this man the first time out, well, I might be looking to go all Ray Leonard and try and invent some shit in the gym, go in with a sneaky plan to mess with the man's mind. But evidently... well, stubbornness does seem to be an issue with this boy. You can ask Manny Steward about that one.

All right, enough, enough, you get the picture. It's prognostificating time. I'm nervous about this one, because what with the Giants and then Quintana... these upsets are spooking me a little. That said, I really can't think of a single reason to pick Jermain, not one. The only thing you could really hope for was the good old puncher's chance, but hell, he had his puncher's chance, landed that miracle shot in the first fight and he still couldn't get his man out of there. So unless he's really got something deceitful and genius going on, unless all this "I'm going right at him" talk is all part of a diabolical plot to lure Pavlik into a false sense Ghostlihood, then I see real guaranteed trouble in his future. And look, Jermain's a helluva nice kid with a lot of heart, but he ain't no genius.

My prediciton? Pain. Pavlik KO4 Taylor. Prognostificator... out. Cause I don't need no hook for this shee-it....