Fasten Your Seat Belts

And so at last the year begins for the true fight fan, with two welterweight bouts of consequence tomorrow night involving two of the rising stars of the division.

The fight with the most immediate implications for future welterweight action is the headliner, where WBO champ Paul "The Punisher" Williams puts his belt on the line against Carlos Quintana, the belt that he won in a stunning, near-virtuoso performance against Antonio Margarito last summer. Tomorrow night's bout is most interesting as a litmus test for Williams that will tell us roughly where he stands in relation to Miguel Cotto, who won his WBA title against Quintana in December of 2006. That was Cotto's first bout at welterweight, and to put it mildly, it was no contest. He destroyed Quintana with his trademark body assault and forced his fellow Boricuan to quit on his stool after the fifth round.

Obviously, The Punisher will be looking to dish out a similar brand of punishment tomorrow night in order to keep his name circulating amongst the elite of the 147 crowd, a crowd right now that is the class of the entire sport hands down. And that's about all that makes this fight interesting on paper, the fact that Williams not only has to win but that he has to do it in spectacular fashion.

With that as his motivation, I see him getting the job done in style. Quintana is a B-lister at best whose only claim to fame is decisioning an overrated Joel Julio. Williams, meanwhile, is a veritable nightmare to fight, a ridiculously long and accurate southpaw who's unnaturally quick and agile for such a tall welterweight, and who along with his manifest physical gifts possesses a sharp set of boxing instincts to boot. Basically, for your average 147, fighting Williams is like fighting some ungodly combination of Floyd and Kevin Garnett. There's a danger that he'll go after the stoppage too hard and get rocked a few times - this Puerto Rican is no Margarito, but he's a natural counter-puncher and he's got enough pop to get your attention. On that score, I think Williams' main obstacle tomorrow night will be keeping his mojo in check. I mean, here he is headlining an HBO card against an overmatched opponent and there's BIG-TIME money out there on the table for him if he can put on a laser show. Makes me think a little of Vicious Vivian Harris trying to make some fireworks by going after Carlos "I'm Gumby dammit" Maussa on the Floyd/Gatti undercard and shooting his wad in the first two rounds, ending up on the canvas in the 7th.

I don't think Williams will be so hasty, though, and even if he is it's hard to imagine him paying too big a price for it. He's got a good head on his shoulders and thus far has shown preternatural poise in big situations. My prognostification is that he'll take his time, and if he does that he should have him out of there between the 8th and 11th. A decision here is not out of the question, though - it would be a bad result for Williams, but it could happen. Myself, I'm rooting against it. So... Williams TKO10 Quintana. It is written.

As for Berto, well, he has something of the same situation and it's kind of a shame for the kid, because any other weight class, any other time, and I think he'd be on the verge of stardom right now. There's just so much damn traffic at 147 at the moment. He also got a bad break in his last fight, an unsung 2007 FOY candidate against David Estrada that should have generated a lot of more buzz on the whole but instead ended up a footnote to the all-time war that was Pavlik/Taylor.

Berto's past two fights have been real learning experiences for him - Cosme Rivera, who was the classic bump in the road for a young comer, that hard-headed veteran with a few tricks up his sleeve that every prospect has to get past at some point if they're going to graduate out of the minors, and then Estrada, a very talented B+/A- fighter who's hard as nails and fighting for his life. Now Berto is facing a different kind of challenge, a reported speed merchant from Germany, Michel Trabant, who is evidently a very savvy boxer. Something tells me his virtues are being oversold, however. I don't know him so I can't really say other than to offer an opinion based on the records, which is that a stoppage by Berto would send a definite message that he's ready for a shot at the A-list, while a convincing decision victory would be a solid par for the evening.