Will to Power

"You got a guy who's flamboyant and you got a guy who's a tough club fighter... this right here is just like Sylvester Stallone and Apollo Creed. The reason why he was able to make Rocky one, two, three, four, five, AND fucking six... the only reason he was able to make them kind of movies is because people believe that bullshit. See... this ain't gonna be that Rocky Seven movie because the real motherfucker's gonna win for real... the real guy who's supposed to win is GONNA win. - Roger Mayweather

As I listened to Uncle Rog voice the above words of wisdom last night, I nodded my head in solemn recognition, never more aware of how great minds think alike. I myself voiced much the same sentiment to Franchise on Wednesday over at his site, jarrypark.com. People love to think that boxing is a contest of wills and a contest of wills alone. This is largely what motivates Hollywood's love affair with the sweet science, the cinematic idea that a fight is entirely a measure of what's inside a man's heart. This rah-rah bit of nonsense ignores the fact that at the highest skill levels boxing is primarily an athletic contest where will is indeed a factor (as it is in all sports of pain and endurance) but a factor that only comes into play when you have the speed and reflexes and vision, when you have the God-given ability to level the playing field.

My example to Franchise on this score was that you could have the will of an elephant, of a hundred elephants, but if you happen to be a so-so tennis player with a weak serve you are NEVER going to beat Roger Federer in a thousand tries. Of course, boxing is very different than tennis - there is the fabled "puncher's chance." Now and then in the squared circle, a man who is completely outclassed on all fronts manages to land that one magic punch that turns the tide in his favor. It doesn't happen often, but when it does, what a thrill it is. It speaks to all of us supremely untalented gobs out here walking around wondering if we'll ever land the big one.

For an example, I turn to Lennox Lewis, who was certainly vulnerable to the magic punch of lesser mortals in his time, ate two of them in fact, one from Hasim Rahman and one from Oliver McCall. The knockout McCall laid on him was really in my mind the epitome of the puncher's chance, a wild right thrown with eyes completely closed that happened, almost as if guided by some force not his own, to find its mark and fell his man.

We must remember, however, that there were some important preconditions that went into creating this situation:

1. Lennox was undertrained, overconfident and downright lazy in the ring.
2. For as great as he was, Lennox was never known for having a great beard.
3. Though an utter disaster as a fighter on almost every front, McCall had legitimate power.

Which brings me to Mayweather/Hatton. As I've said, I am in complete agreement with Uncle Rog that Ricky Hatton is a glorified club fighter, a genuine Rocky in the flesh, and out here in the real world, Rocky always loses. Everything, every single factor, is in Floyd's favor - he's faster, he's bigger, he's on his home turf, he has more experience in big situations, he's clearly much more relaxed, and what's more, watching 24/7 has led me to believe that he has infinitely more skilled trainers and handlers guiding his progress. One of the most telling exchanges in the whole 24/7 series was Hatton's ridiculing of Floyd's pad-regimen with Rog, the oft-showed sequences where Floyd, while looking at the camera, goes through his breakneck rhythmic flurries of punches and feints.

Obviously I'm not in Hatton's camp and all I see is what the camera shows me, which is quite probably far from the whole story. Nevertheless, what I see of Floyd's training is a regular and almost unimaginable display of the kind of speed and reflexes that wins fights. What I see of Hatton's training is him lunging around the ring after his broken-down lout of a trainer wearing a big belly pad that you couldn't miss if you threw an anvil at it. In the gym, Hatton strikes me as a man who's trying to convince himself of the soundness of his own fury, of the enormity of his will to prevail in the face of an overwhelming deficit in skill.

It's not on mate, it's just not on. The only chance in hell that Ricky Hatton has of winning tomorrow night is the puncher's chance, and of the three preconditions that I mentioned before in relationship to Lennox, only one is even possibly at play with Mayweather. Floyd is a perfectly conditioned athlete who, because of his healthy regard for his own safety, never underestimates his man. Also, Ricky Hatton is not a puncher of note - he's small and his shots are wide and unbalanced. The only thing that one can wonder about is Floyd's chin, for though he has stood up to loads of punishment in his career and taken it with aplomb, we have never seen him walk one single step down queer street, and so we have no idea how he would cope should he ever find himself on that lonely avenue.

But then, the fact that Floyd has never been seriously shaken in a fight is telling in and of itself, for he has certainly faced a number of opponents with the firepower to shake a man - Manfredy, Chico, Jesus Chavez, Gatti, Oscar. I remember reading about this conversation that Floyd had with some R&B chick in a rap magazine somewhere, where she said to him, "I don't like boxing... I don't like watching people get hit," and he instantly replied, "well you should come see my fights then cause I don't get hit."

Indeed he don't. As I've made clear time and time again, I prognosticate an easy victory for Floyd, and I feel very confident about that prognostification. Plus, I have to add that the last episode of 24/7 has me thinking that it will be a stoppage. Hatton looks doubtful to me and I think he may well be about to meet the same fate as Arturo at the hands of Money May. So here it is people, take it to the bank - Floyd TKO 10.