Prognostification

Okay, okay, maybe we've overdone it a little on Taylor/Pavlik here this week, but look, we're excited. I'm not going to go overboard with my pre-fight analysis - I just want to give you a few of the reasons why I think...

1. this fight will NOT go the distance
2. Pavlik will win

On the fight not going all the way, well, you don't have to be Nat freakin Fleischer to call that one. Neither of these guys is what you would call a defensive expert, and both of them pack a serious wallop. Pavlik - we all know how he stupifies his opponents. And Jermain - people have forgotten how seriously Jermain can trade in the stupification business because of the type of dude he's been fighting since he made the bigtime. I mean, look at who he's fought since he won the belts - Bernard again and then Winky, two fighters who are the second and third best defensive fighters respectively (after Pernell) of the last twenty years. Then Kassim the Dream, and granted Jermain did not cover himself in glory in that thing, but still, that Ouma... I'm not exactly sure that Tyson could have taken him out. I'm not sure a machine gun could knock out Kassim Ouma. And then Jermain fights Cory Spinks, which was just... who needed that fight in the first place? Cory certainly was not interested in fighting that night. That was like watching boxing and the Tour de France at the same time.

No, make no bones about it - Jermain can bring it, and he's seriously big to boot. He's a 175 masquerading as a 160, and when he puts all that body in motion, you do not want to be on the other end. I have a feeling that the winner of this fight is going to look like he just lost a fight badly, and the reason that I think it will be Pavlik is this: for all his size and power, do you really think Jermain hits harder than Edison Miranda? I don't. I think he's faster, more difficult to hit cleanly - without question I think this will be a much tougher assignment than Miranda for Pavlik. But Miranda was throwing anvils at the Ghost, and he walked through them like he was Casper. Pavlik is one tough, rugged Youngstown type of bastard. Meanwhile, Jermain has NEVER fought anyone with the kind of pop that Pavlik has. Look at that list of big-name opponents up there - a 40-year-old Bernard? Bernard couldn't punch when he was 25. Winky? Never a pleasant experience fighting the Wink, but the man don't knock anybody out (and that said, he almost got Jermain). Kassim? A natural 147 fighting a guy who walks around at 190. Cory? Not even worth talking about - all he did was jab Taylor in the stomach like four times a round. The fact of the matter is that for the last two years, Jermain has fought guys who have next to nothing on their punches. Now he's going to get in and trade with Kelly "I make dudes shit their pants before they figuratively die in front of me" Pavlik? Sounds like a heap of trouble.

I don't know if you watched the preview show on HBO, but there was one important clue in there as to where Jermain's, and even more telling, Manny Steward's head is at. Suddenly, Jermain and Manny are both talking about how Jermain needs to jab more, get back to the way he used to fight, use his footwork more, box more. And I'm like dah... what? When the hell did Jermain used to be like Sugar Ray Leonard? When was this magical time?

I'll tell you when - it was never. Jermain always has been a clumsy-ass bull in a china shop who overwhelms his opponents with his pure mass and raw power. This guy used to be a boxer like I used to be a surfer. So why suddenly is Manny Steward talking about how Jermain needs to box more? Do I really need to answer that? There's going to be two bulls in the ring Saturday night, and ole Manny at least seems to be plenty aware that one of them has a sharper pair of horns. That alone should tell you everything you need to know when you're making your wager. Enjoy the fight, make sure you tune in early for Berto/Estrada, because that should be a wangdanger too, and look for me and I-berg - we'll be the only guys in Panama hats besides Bert Sugar.