Mayweather Mosley Prognostification
Dear Brothers of the Mas,
As you all know, I have mad respect for Floyd’s skills. The kid doesn’t play, not in the ring, not in training, and not in choosing his battles either. That Mayweather clan may be crazy as all crazy, but I also think they’re crazy like dysfunctional foxes. Crazy foxes from the hood, no less – very dangerous foxes indeed. They can smell when a man is weak, that kind.
We had Dana White on my TV show a few weeks ago, and I know he’s a big fight fan, so we asked him who he’d take in Mayweather/Pacquiao.
First thing he said was, “I’m not so sure Floyd is going to get past Shane.”
One of his main arguments for that was that Shane was in camp for Berto, and then after that fight fell apart, he had maybe a week off and went back to camp for Floyd. He saw that as a big positive for Shane, that he’s hyper-prepared and in shape.
Me, I see it as a big negative. Training camp takes a toll on a man Shane’s age, and two camps back-to-back without any layoff is NOT a good thing for him in my opinion. Throw in the fact that the headshots are seriously taking a toll on the man, and I worry for him in this thing, I really do. We had him on the show by satellite on Thursday, and I’ll tell you something – he is slurring like early 80′s Ali. He’s slurring even when the cameras are on, and when they’re off, fuhgeddaboudit. He’s incomprehensible, looks lost and glazed. It’s a sad, sad thing, but Shane is going down the road much traveled.
In short, I think Floyd is going to beat him up but good. I know Shane is a warrior, and I know he will take one hell of a licking and keep on ticking, but Floyd won’t be hitting him with those big Cotto and Margarito telegraphed wangdangers tomorrow night. With Shane lunging and flurrying the way he does, Floyd is going to catch him with more than a few of those you-never-saw-it-didja?-now-dance-for-me-motherfucker type counters, the ones that send you down Queersville in a jiffy.
I picture this fight in my mind and I see something that feels like a cross between Oscar-Floyd and Hatton-Floyd. First couple of rounds, I think Shane will get some licks in, and there will be moments where you wonder… “maybe this is the time, maybe this is the guy…” Floyd will stay cool, of course, take it like a champ, and I think the overall effect that he’s getting roughed up will be at least 60% illusion (unlike Hatton, where it was 100%). The clean potshots he lands on Shane will add up quickly, and by the seventh or eighth, the tide will have turned and we’ll have a bloodbath on our hands.
I see Floyd stopping Shane, and I would put that in the 9th or 10th. It will not be pretty, I fear. Shane’s guts and raw hatred of Floyd will do him a disservice. Marquez walked out of that ring because he went into survival mode. Shane doesn’t know from survival mode – just ask him to put two sentences together for proof of that. He will Hatton himself into extinction.
However, the mere name, “Shane Mosley,” gives me pause on the gambling front. Floyd at -450, -475, is just too rich for my blood. Say Floyd breaks a hand. I think he beats Shane easily with two mitts, but with one he loses. Shane’s old and deteriorating fast, but he still ain’t no Baldomir.
So, you know, if you’re looking to make a wager and want to have a little fun tomorrow night, lay a fin down on Shane if you can get him over +300. Spice up your night. You know you’ll be rooting for him anyway.
In conclusion, I miss you dudes. All love to my Masian brothers. My show is called The Daily Line, and it’s on Versus every night at 6 p.m. We’re making baby steps towards being something solid, I believe, though it takes time in TV land. We’re not walking yet, but we’re crawling with some measure of style.
Aight – keep your gloves up. Hopefully, I’ll be rapping at you sooner rather than later. I promise to get back in the ring either here or at The Rumble if Pac/Floyd goes down.
Love Large
May 1st, 2010 at 10:25 pm
Large,
i cant quit you.
Kevin
ps pretty accurate hypothesis.
May 1st, 2010 at 11:42 pm
Large! Look how you snuck that in there, I had no idea. I see you’ve still got your magic touch. I’ll def be checking out the show. I kind of felt sorry for Shane in there tonight. He didn’t look good at all after the second round. And to hear you talk about his health – I think we could all see it, but to hear you put it so plainly…it’s really sad.
I was really excited to read this. Take care man.
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:12 am
great to hear from you large…and ill be checkin the show….its sad/funny to hear you talk about shanes health…and then to hear steve kim call floyds performance last night,”boring”, on twitter….i know getting punched in the head and fighting back is cool to alot of people…but its not that cool
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:07 am
Excellent writing and prescient insights Large!
Like Oscar before him, what we witnessed last night was an old fighter who could no longer “pull the trigger”
That said, all credit to May for staying composed after taking a helluva shot and going on to dominate the fight.
Dave, what strategy should Pac employ against May?
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:14 am
… does anyone stand a chance against the cautious, tactical genius of Floyd?
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:43 am
What’s so exciting about Pac-Floyd in my mind is that it is a perfect stylistic contrast. There would be nothing for Pacquiao to do in that fight but to be exactly what he is, and likewise for Floyd. Or to quote the inimitable Ann Wolfe… “they be chopping some wood, so let the chips fall where they may” (you have to actually hear Ann say those words in person, and barely see the glint of her eyes beneath her cap-brim pulled low, to realize just how terrifying such a seemingly harmless phrase can be).
I am a pretty good ping pong player (full disclosure – I haven’t played in years, but I used to play a lot). Many times I have played people who were just as good as I was and who went up on me big early, and the only real thing I had going for me was that I simply didn’t believe it was possible for me to lose. More often than not, that was enough to carry the day.
In those ever-so-small fields of play, I remember what that conviction felt like, what power it was beyond the capacity of mere “skill” or “reflexes” or anything other technical bullshit you could talk about. I see that power writ large in everything Floyd does in the ring. I felt like you could see it even before the fight even started, the contrast between the two men as the living embodiment of the ultimate ideological struggle between Doubt and Conviction.
Floyd really does remind me of Ali at his best – the combination of such an unbelievably gifted physical specimen and an almost unfathomable will and self-belief. That will was on full display last night. Make no mistake about it – Shane hurt Floyd but good in that second round. And the way Floyd shook it off and went about his business was positively Ali-like. It’s a wonder to behold. Anyone who calls the man boring at this point is just not paying attention.
May 2nd, 2010 at 12:17 pm
Large: “There would be nothing for Pacquiao to do in that fight but to be exactly what he is, and likewise for Floyd. Or to quote the inimitable Ann Wolfe… “they be chopping some wood, so let the chips fall where they may.”
Agreed. Pac needs to fight HIS fight and let the chips fall where they may. On another note, I think Freddie and Pac gained some valuable information last nite: Floyd can take the punch and if you’ve got him hurt, go in for the kill.
Large: “Floyd really does remind me of Ali at his best – the combination of such an unbelievably gifted physical specimen and an almost unfathomable will and self-belief.”
The Ali comparison is a bit of a stretch for me, but as for the self-belief, there can be no doubt. IMO, this was his most impressive fight since way back against Corrales, but still, if it were Ray Leonard or the Hitman, Floyd would have been finsihed in the 2nd rd. (I mention this because Oscar is now saying that Floyd’s the GOAT.)
Anyway, as of now, how do you think a Floyd-Pac fight would play out? Does last nite change anything for you?
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Large, can we get at least once a week update here?
The Rumble just ain’t the same.
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:48 pm
great to hear from you large, interesting stuff as always. Just wondering if you think there’s a difference in the way floyd seems to select his fights? I wasn’t much of an analyst when ali was still kicking but I get the impression that he wanted to fight the best to prove himself most of the time, whereas I don’t always get that impression from floyd?
May 3rd, 2010 at 4:26 am
Floyd really reminds me more of Larry Holmes than Muhammad Ali. Like Holmes, Floyd is combative with the press, doesn’t allow them access like Ali did, and is at times very rude. As a result, the press was hard on both Holmes and Floyd’s game. Sometimes unfairly. Both, Holmes and Floyd, wonder why fans and media don’t love them. They both always seem to be lecturing us on why we should love them. I think Floyd is a all-time great, like Larry. But, like Larry, he’ll be largely forgotten once he’s done. Which is unfair.
May 3rd, 2010 at 7:09 am
Great to hear from Large.
I think that the beard that Floyd showed in the 2nd really took Floyd to the next level, who knew there was one?
I have seen Pac-man hurt, I have seen him go down, I have seen him leave himself open and throw wild punches. Mayweather will wait him out and batter him with strong accurate punches.
May 6th, 2010 at 8:45 am
Large – man, good to hear from you. Any podcast or saved version of your show? Starving for good boxing shows over here.
@Floyd: Sure, he showed his dominance. What I’m wondering, is his chin really that good? I mean, it took one shot to rattle him badly… sure it’s fucking Sugar Shane Mosley, but still. Cotto and Margo took a hell lot more of those shots. I still think – considering how good Floyd is elsewhere – that he is not naturally gifted with a great chin.
May 7th, 2010 at 8:24 pm
Trickster I think his chin is reliable. It’s solid, it’s good. He’s an unbelievable defensive fighter, but anybody can be hit cleanly including him and through 41 professional fights he has only been truly hurt once – by Shane.
And Margs has an inhuman chin – he doesn’t even really count in my opinion.
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