Diaz/Malignaggi Prognostification
(Gentleman, we’ve got the august Shoefly on the prognog piece this week, and yes, the contest is on. Call the round, call the cards, call it call it call it and win a Mas shirt of your choice. But remember… be specific, be very specific. -L)
posted by Shoefly
There’s losing, there’s losing by knockout, and then there’s losing by beating. The type of grueling, pounding, and unmanning hurt they don’t tell you about when you first walk into the gym; the sort of hiding a proud kid who always got his way could never imagine. I’m thinking here of a fight like Calzhage/Lacy. A man enters the ring as a champion and exits a bruise on legs.
I generally think the modern obsession with a fighter being damaged and faded following a loss is unhelpful and inaccurate, but when a boxer receives the deep hurt it’s impossible not to look for signs of a changed man.
And that’s what Saturday’s Diaz/Malignaggi fight is really about; how much of Juan Diaz is left? Did the great Juan Manual Marquez knock something essential loose when he ripped two-dozen of the most lovely uppercuts you’re likely to see into the younger man? It was a terrific fight, one of those classic encounters that are so familiar across the course of boxing history; the young lion vs. the old champ, the reckless pressure fighter vs. the counterpunching genius.
Diaz did very well early, walking through some good work by Marquez and scoring with his volume punching, particularly the left hook. But they don’t make many like ‘Dynamita,†and as the fight progressed he started taking control. Diaz only knows one way to win, and he kept moving forward and eating clean punches until he couldn’t any longer. It was systematic, comprehensive, and frighteningly violent. Diaz is a tough kid, only 25 years old, but there’s something magical and fleeting that exists within the special prizefighters, and we need to find if he still has that spark.
Across from him stands Paulie Malignaggi, himself the recipient of one of the most notable beatings in recent years. Miguel Cotto busted Malignaggi to pieces in 2006, fracturing his jaw in a fight Paulie heroically managed to finish standing. Ricky Hatton stopped him in their fight last year, yet Paulie again showed he could take his share of hurt. But while I’ll be watching Diaz closely the difference with Malignaggi is he never had much to begin with. He has fast hands and good movement, but not the natural elusiveness of the elite slicksters. Probably the lightest punching fighter amongst the frequently televised, his fragile right hand has deteriorated over the years. He’s basically been left with a nice jab and enough style and moxie to get past the mediocrities.
While both fighters are young this is something of a deciding test for each. Malignaggi lost badly the only two times he faced class opponents, and his style is not really pleasing to anyone. If he loses another fight without offering much resistance I expect his time as a television fighter will be over. He was always more notable for his talking and persona than the quality of his boxing, but there comes a point where even the guys with personality have to deliver. For Diaz there is still hope, he has an attractive style and a nice personal story, but he has failed in his biggest tests as well. There was an expectation that he would become the next great lightweight, and now that Marquez is moving up this is his opportunity to show that he has recovered and is prepared to take his rightful place.
I think he will step up, at least for one night. If Juan Diaz still has his faculties intact he should run right through Malignaggi. There is nothing in Paulie’s arsenal that can slow him down and Diaz is not the type to be cowed by the clowning and play Malignaggi frustrates his lesser opponents with. I think the fight will last the duration, Diaz doesn’t have much power himself, but I expect him to exert control with his pressure. It’s the right fight for Diaz on his way back, the doubts should stay away when all you have to absorb is an accurate jab. I doubt Diaz will become what HBO was hoping of him, and he may have lost something that night against Marquez, but I think he’s got enough to soundly beat Malignaggi. Diaz UD Malignaggi , 118-110
August 21st, 2009 at 10:55 am
I agree with most all of your prognostication here Shoe. I love Paulie to death (former client) but he would have to win all 12 rounds in extremely clear fashion just to get a close decision in Texas. Both Diaz and Rocky Juarez have been the beneficiaries of some gift decisions in the lone star state (as well as questionable refereeing in Juarez’ case).
Paulie probably does not have the power to knockout Diaz and in fact, Paulie was buzzed pretty good by a journeyman in his last fight. The one thing Paulie has done is bitch to high heaven about biased judging – so maybe he bought himself a close round or two on the scorecards. I’m expecting Paulie to actually win a round or two early and maybe one or two late but I’m thinking the scorecards will look like this – 118-110(2x) and 120-108.
August 21st, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Diaz by UD 117-111, 119-109, 119-109
August 21st, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Diaz by UD, 116-112, 116-112, 117-111.
All offers null and void if the Baby Bull gets cut, however.
August 21st, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Late corner stoppage for Diaz – there is nothing Malinaggi can do, to stopp the baby bull. Diaz may be featherfisted, but he will land hundreds of shots and the corner or the ref will stop the fight.
Diaz TKO 11
August 21st, 2009 at 1:54 pm
I agree with… well shazam IRverybody on this one. There doesn’t seem to be any way Diaz can lose this one in Texas but I expect a great fight. What do you folks think of the undercard? Ghost Guererro’s opponent has never fought out of South Africa so that’s a tough one to predict. Unless this guy is an African conflict daimond in the rough Ghost should win.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:05 pm
i’m going with diaz by knockout in the first minute of the first round because of how much i hate how malignaggi looks in that picture.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Diaz TKO 9.
Malignaggi has already given up on this fight, judging on his comments. He might not be a high-class, low-risk stalking horse after this one.
August 21st, 2009 at 3:32 pm
I’m with y’alls, and man, I really could give a shit about this fight. HBO is putting up an egg here. Even though, I’m in eligible, I’ll throw in at Diaz UD – two 116-112’s and a 115-113. I have a feeling Paulie will be on his bike and given his recent comments he might pull some close rounds that way that he doesn’t deserve. He’ll still lose conclusively.
I think Guerrero will have a pretty easy time with Klassen. He’s one of that foursome of S. Africans who pass the belt back and forth, and I don’t think any of them are that good. Klassen lost to Mzoke Fana, who you may recall got DESTROYED by Barrera a few years ago.
The most interesting fight is the opener, featuring our boy Danny Jacobs, who I have a feeling is going to have his hands full with ole Ishe Smith. Sugar Shay do love to be playing the spoiler with the young-uns.
August 21st, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I’ll go with a relative squeaker – Diaz, UD 115-112(x2), 117-110. Paulie re-injures his right hand in the 4th and hops on his bicycle. Diaz doesn’t catch him, and in the end, the snazzy nicknames belie the action.
Was a catchweight really needed for this one?
August 21st, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Did anyone else see the weigh in photos? I was surprised how much taller Malignaggi is, and Diaz looks pudgier than ever. If I had any confidence in Malignaggi I would rethink my choice, but the truth is he just has so little to offer in return I can’t see it going any other way. Even if he lands better Diaz will overwhelm him with volume. Those pictures did give me pause though.
Wrote a short piece on Roy Jones if you want to check it out.
http://boxiana.blogspot.com/2009/08/notes-from-edge.html
August 21st, 2009 at 7:10 pm
I’m going to throw caution (slightly) to the wind and go for the Split Decision, 115-113 (x2) and one 114-114 as Diaz gets frustrated by Paulie’s style and foolishly allows a couple rounds to go the other way without ever really getting in danger.
BTW Large, I’ve got an extra ticket to the A’s game on Sunday against the Tigers, give me a holla if you’re interested.
August 21st, 2009 at 7:43 pm
I say Diaz by UD 117-111, 117-111, 116-112
August 21st, 2009 at 8:51 pm
What the heck, I’ll go out on a major limb. I say Diaz gets cut early, is unable to handle the cut and then loses a close decision. 116-112 (x3) 115-113.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:10 pm
nothing too original to offer up (it’s a bit tougher when everybody knows the fight’s going the distance barring cuts-a possibility). i go 117-111, 115-113, 115-113 (diaz by decision). i think paulie wins some rounds on speed and movement alone and since he can withstand cotto’s bombs=no chance he’s getting knocked out by diaz. if someone already posted that exact score, i’ll take diaz via bodyshot tko in 9th.
August 22nd, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Diaz by TKO in the 7th
August 22nd, 2009 at 7:39 pm
Might as well take a better shot at winning the swag since most of the previous predictions are how I’m leaning. So why not? Malignaggi TKO 11th rd.
August 22nd, 2009 at 11:09 pm
that is one of the worst decisions in the history of western civilization. where was diaz from the 8th-11th? those were 4 rounds i forgot who the fuck malignaggi was even fighting. i feel bad for paulie. and his postfight interview was the truest shit he ever spoke.
August 22nd, 2009 at 11:16 pm
I had it a draw. It was weird – I had it a draw through 6, 8, 10 and 12. 118-110 was a farce – even 116-112 seemed a stretch. It was an entertaining fight, but the scoring really mars it. An SD either way or a draw would have been acceptable as far as I’m concerned. I’ll try and put a piece up tomorrow if I have time.
August 22nd, 2009 at 11:55 pm
i know they say close only counts with horseshoes and hand grenades, but how does the mas treat prognostications? there may be others just as close (2pts off)…i’ve had a few too many modelos to accurately scan the predictions. i don’t actually feel worthy of a prize.
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and i’ve gotta believe that malignaggi will be the only one clamoring for a rematch.
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hometown cooking or not (i had diaz winning by a point or two), diaz is the fighter i prefer to watch fight again. paulie occasionally has flashes where he’s extremely impressive/highly entertaining, but at the end of the day he suffers from the same shortcoming that held back another paul from my hometown (spadafora=no power). diaz isn’t a big puncher either, but he’s offense-minded and has shown the ability to break down opponents in the later rounds via an accumulation of shots.
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of course, as far as i know, malignaggi never shot a girlfriend in the stomach for getting a flat tire while driving his hummer….so he’s got that going for him, which is nice.
August 23rd, 2009 at 5:38 am
I had it a draw also, Large.
August 23rd, 2009 at 9:34 am
how’d yall have it a draw? i thought the 1st and 3rd were clearly paulie walnuts’ rounds… and like lederman’s card… i had him shutting out diaz in the 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th. the 12th was a toss up that could have gone either way.
i can’t remember which was the other round i gave him but i felt he won the fight.
diaz winning 8 rounds of this fight? nah. diaz winning TEN rounds of this fight? no freakin way.
August 23rd, 2009 at 10:46 am
Paulie’s post-fight presser, for anyone interested.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hj1W1ruOdXc
August 23rd, 2009 at 1:45 pm
I don’t think I’m going to get a piece up about this today, so I’ll give you guys my card:
Diaz/Paulie
9-10
10-9
9-10
9-10
10-9
10-9
10-9
9-10
10-9
9-10
9-10
10-9
I had Paulie up 3-1 after four, but then I thought Diaz won the next three rounds and evened it up. For the most part I thought the rounds were tough to score in that most of them had good and bad points for each guy. At times Paulie’s ring generalship and left jab seemed to own the proceedings, but then he’d take a break and diaz would land some of those big left hooks and even the playing field again. I thought it was a draw in the end both in terms of rounds and just as an overall feel of the fight. Diaz’s cut made him look like he’d gotten much more of a beating than he had (he cuts pretty much every fight now) but Paulie suffered from that hometown syndrome where the big punches of one guy get all the big roars from the crowd while your punches draw silence. But neither guy had an edge over the other come the end of that fight, in my eyes. And I admit, I like Paulie, he’s a consummate character and boxing clown, but I’m not clamoring to see him in a big fight again.
August 23rd, 2009 at 4:38 pm
paulie got robbed
August 23rd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Lads- the results are in – and Sentimental is the winner. We went with total points off the bullseye to settle it, and it was VERY close. Adam and El Mero were the runner-ups, each off the mark by four total points (and btw Adam, no double prognogs next time or you’re dq’ed). Sentimental, who obviously thought Paulie would taste the canvas at some point, gave us two 115-112’s and a 117-110, making him only three total points off the exact numbers, and the Mas champion of the week. Well done son. Email IBerg with your shirt of choice.
August 23rd, 2009 at 8:33 pm
May this be the last major fight fought in the late state of Texas. I have nothing but contempt for every judge, referee, and official in the whole territory, and would love for them to get their succession papers going again right now. What a sham.
August 24th, 2009 at 3:36 am
Man, Paulie got my respect – he was really quick in there. Still had Diaz up by one, so I don’t see a robbery – just one blind or now rich judge.
Btw. in retrospective, does this one give Hatton some credit for his strong performance against Paulie?
August 24th, 2009 at 4:42 am
Trickster, if you’re waiting for someone to give “Hatton some credit” I don’t think it will be coming from our man Large. Large can’t even mention poor Ricky’s name with saying “he sucks”. The funny thing is Large seems to me to be a very rational, fair guy….but man does he love to flog him some Ricky Hatton.
August 24th, 2009 at 10:49 am
I had it 7-5 Diaz but like everyone else here I thought it could have gone either way. Lots of close rounds. I just wish Paulie would develop a little more of an arsenal. He basically has three punches – jab, straight right and occasional right uppercut. No left hook, hardly any body shots. With such a limited variety of weapons it will always be a challenge to beat the elite fighters.
Having said that, however, I was proud of him for giving such a good performance and proving that he still belongs in the mix at 140. The fight was a lot closer than I expected, he never let Diaz overwhelm him like Hatton did.
The judging was definitely of the hometown variety but it’s that way in every sport. Road teams in the NFL and NBA never get the calls they should get either. East coast fighters, especially cuties, don’t get any breaks in the southwest. Paulie knew what he was up against going in and I think he made it close enough to create some uproar and leave himself in the mix. Hopefully, he won’t get too down about it and get right back into the ring.
August 24th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Did someone say Ricky Hatton? He sucks…
Paulie himself admits that he was crap against Hatton. I think the Paulie of Saturday night gives Hatton a better go of it, but still loses conclusively. Hatton walked through Paulie’s jab like it wasn’t there. On that count, I do wonder if Diaz is a force at 140 – he was a little more dissuaded by Paulie’s jab than it seemed he should have been in terms of his pressure fighting. Just didn’t look like vintage Diaz to my eyes, and given that Paulie is known to punch with all the power of Eva Longoria, you have to wonder about that.
He was cut, though, Diaz, and it was a pretty nasty one. And we know how Diaz feels about being cut.
Word is Diaz is now looking for a Hatton fight. Better make sure that shit is in Houston, and better make sure Gale Van Hoy is available.
August 24th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Large,from your comments it appears that you’re not
walkin along
singing a song
walkin in a Hatton wonderland
By the way, did you get Christian Giudice’s e-mail address? Maybe you could convince him to write a piece or two for the Mas. He puts stuff up on his facebook page all the time that’s quite good. I told him I shot you his e-mail address and he said he was looking forward to hearing from you. Not trying to stick my nose where I shouldn’t…it’s just that the two of you are young, talent writers who share an interest in boxing. You two should get to know one another.
August 24th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
But I want to write a piece or two for the Mas. I’m a young writer who likes boxing, too. What about me? It’s always Christian Giudice, Christian Giudice, Christian Guidice…
August 24th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Antwonomous…first you talk about taking on Pacquiao, now it’s your writing over Christian Giudice?!!! What’s next, you challenging Usain Bolt to a foot race? Maybe questioning how you would fair against Tiger in a round of golf?….I like your spirit but…
August 24th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
so floyd’s not a suspect in the shooting? that’s certainly good news. still, i’ve always found that when you’re going to be involved in a drive-by shooting…..it’s much better to be in a toyota corolla, honda accord, or chevy caprice (you know, pretty much anything other than a rolls royce).
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and why would someone ever feel compelled to start shooting outside a skating rink? as dj quik might say, “now the crystal palace skating center…is just like compton!” glad nobody got hurt.
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on a different note, i’m really excited by the prospect of big fights being shown in theaters again. the UFC PPVs are in every Hooters, as well as any number of other sports bars…..but call around when a big boxing event nears and it’s hard to find folks that even know the fight is happening (and damn near impossible to find a bar that gets the fight). i’ve never fully understood how much bars have to pay to get boxing PPVs, but assume it must be a pretty penny to explain how few places get them. theaters seem like a good first step towards making big fights a communal sort of event. i feel like a lot of casual fans are far more likely to pay $15-25 to see a fight on the big screen (which gives off more of a big event vibe), rather than stay home and drop $60 for a fight.
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so does anyone have any insight as to the status of berto/mosley or mosley/clottey? i’d be happy with either fight, but more excited about berto.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
Brad, I didn’t realize Christian Giudice wrote the first Duran biography. I assumed he was just another nobody writer trying to come up, like myself.
August 25th, 2009 at 4:13 am
I was just messing with you Antwonomous. I loved your piece about Pacquiao. You should read Giudice’s book if you get a chance. It’s excellent.
August 25th, 2009 at 4:37 am
Adam I’m with you on being excited about boxing making a return to theaters. I grew up watching big fights in theaters and hockey arenas. I simply hope the picture and sound are better than back in the old days. I remember the theater we saw Duran-Hagler in had, at times, no sound and the picture kept fading in and out. There was this mean looking dude sitting next to us who was clearly drunk that kept threatening to “shoot somebody” if they lost the signal entirely. We have no idea if he was joking or serious but let’s just say it added a little texture to the night that you don’t get in the safety of your home watching PPV.
August 25th, 2009 at 7:10 am
I’m really excited about boxing coming back to the theater. For somebody like myself who doesn’t date back as far as Duran-Hagler, this is something new and refreshing. I already plan on sneaking a six pack into the theater on fight night. I know America won’t feel this way, but for me this is now the most anticipated card of the year. I’m sure I’m not the only young American who feels this way.
August 25th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Boxing at the movies – first time since, dah, you know – No Mas mothafuckas. I do wonder – does it pull down the PPV numbers or escalate them? How do they calculate it? Because, well, here’s the thing – I think it’s possible they’re doing this so they can cook their numbers after the fight. Although I guess they’re only doing 170 theaters – how many people fit in a movie theater – 250? 400?
Brad – I will definitely hit up Giudice, I’ll do it today. The guy’s a great writer – Hands of Stone is one of the best boxing bios in the last 10 years.
Antwonomous, you out there? Hit me up with your contact info at this address – davelarz@gmail.
August 25th, 2009 at 11:47 am
I know Brad…I took no offense there.