Bradley vs. Campbell Prognostification
posted by Large
First of all, let me welcome all you Pound 4 Pound radio listeners to the Friday prognostification contest here at the Mas. The contest is simple – leave your own prognostification for tomorrow night’s Timothy Bradley/Nate Campbell fight in the comments to the piece, and the closest to the final outcome wins a No Mas t-shirt of his or her choosing. Price is Right scoring applies, so be specific. Bradley by decision ain’t gonna cut it. We need scorecards. Similarly, when calling a KO or TKO, give the time of the stoppage and not just the round, so we can use that as a tiebreaker if need be.
Aight… on to the matter at hand. I’m going to give my take on the fight, and then at the bottom of this piece you can listen to the prediction from our friends at Pound 4 Pound.
Right off the top, I think everyone out there will agree that we’re looking at a potential FOY candidate here. One never knows how things will play out, of course, but both of these guys come to fight, both are willful and resourceful and familiar denizens of the Ministry of Dirty Tricks, and both have a tremendous amount at stake.
Brother Nate is a 5-2 underdog right now, paying $250 on a c-note. I think a lot of folks, particularly in the Mas community where I know Nate has a following, will look at that and start seeing dollar signs floating around their eyeballs. When you consider what Nate has been through in his career and what kind of heart we all know beats inside his chest, not to mention what he is wont to do with undefeated young hotshots (Kid Diamond, anyone? Baby Bull?), the short end of 5-2 against a mid-level talent like Bradley doesn’t seem to tell the tale.
Me, though, I’m not touching this one. I admit that I think you’re a fool if you’re laying down scratch on Bradley at -325 or thereabouts. But I also admit that I’m really not feeling Nate in this one, not even enough to take a little chance on him at +250.
The reason is simple: Bradley vs. Holt. I’m telling you guys, before you start maxing out your cards on Nate in this thing, take a look at that fight again and tell me if you really think Nate has the wherewithal to grind out a win over Bradley at 140 pounds in Bradley’s hometown.
There’s some strange assessment of the Bradley/Holt fight floating around out there that Kendall stopped fighting against Bradley, that he took his foot off the gas and coasted and that’s why he lost a fight he should have won.
I don’t see it. I didn’t see that the first time I saw it, and I watched it again last night and I didn’t see it then either. What I saw was Bradley taking the fight out of a very game Kendall with sheer relentlessness and the will to prevail. I saw Kendall landing big, and I mean BIG, shots, knocking Bradley on his ass in the first round, and I saw Bradley get right back up and keep coming, keep grinding, furiously working Holt’s body, roughing him up, throwing his head around, hitting low, rabbit punching and slapping during clinches, just doing everything in the dirt book to fuck with him basically.
And it worked. Kendall Holt is a big, hard-punching, willful 140 and Bradley broke him down with pitbull tactics. It’s an approach that the Galaxxy Warrior is all too familiar with, and that’s why we envision a potential barnstormer in our midst. Nate is a will-to-win guy himself, short on natural boxing brilliance, but long on athletic instinct and very long on heart. What’s more, he knows how to throw a headbutt or two, and he’s never shied away from going low when the opportunity presents itself. This may not be the Fight of the Year, but it could well be The Dirtiest Fight of the Year.
In the end, what I think we have here are two guys who are mirror images of each other , determined as all hell, second-rate fighters but first-class warriors who will do everything and anything to get the W. You could say that Nate historically packs more of a punch, but then, Nate’s a lightweight moving up to 40. And remember, this isn’t a situation like, say, Cotto moving up from 40 to 47. This is not a guy just naturally filling out as he reaches his prime and moving up to a higher weight division where he’s meant to be in his career and where he will unquestionably be stronger and sturdier. No, this is a guy at the end of his run who just can’t make weight anymore. There’s a difference, a big difference.
I also think the idea that Bradley is a weak puncher demands some inspection. He does have a tendency to shoeshine, but to me that’s merely a part of the package with him where his m.o. is to keep working at all costs. When he sits down on his shots, he can bang a little bit. The body assault he unleashed on Holt was vicious. He had Kendall Holt looking like he was ready to take a knee in the 7th round of their fight, all from those big hooks to the ribcage. Bradley’s not going to knock you down with one spectacular shot, but he can definitely put a hurt on you.
And so it seems to me that it’s going to come down to a contest of wills tomorrow night, and though generally it’s tough to bet against Nate in such a contest, this time it just doesn’t seem to me that Fates are behind him. He’s 37 years old. His career has been in freefall once again over the last year following that signature victory over Juan Diaz, and with the titles he sought for so long finally around his waist, he forfeits them on the scale? You have to wonder what’s becoming of a man’s desire in such a situation.
Nate is saying that Bradley is very similar to Juan Diaz, but I have to disagree on that count. We learned something about Juan Diaz in his fight with Nate, and then we subsequently learned it again when Diaz fought Marquez , he can’t handle being cut. Nate opened a cut above Diaz’s eye with his head in the first round of their fight (Nate was positively ruthless with his head that night) and without a decent cutman (also without Ronnie Shields in his corner that night for some reason as I recall) Diaz proceeded to quickly fold.
Based on what I’ve seen of Bradley, he’s not about to blink in a similar situation. He got up from that brain-blaster that Holt laid on him and went straight back to work. This is a very tough kid. He’s reckless too, open to all manner of counters, and maybe Nate will catch him with a big one and put him to sleep. But something is telling me that if Kendall couldn’t do it with the kind of haymakers he was throwing, then Nate won’t either. The type of fighter that I see being able to destroy Bradley would be someone with superior timing and very fast hands. With the way he jumps in at you winging his shots, he is ripe to be seriously knocked out by a… well, by a Pacquiao or a Floyd Mayweather.
But I don’t see Nate being able to do a better job on that score than did Holt. No, what Nate is going to be able to do with this kid is what he’s always able to do , go to war with him. And sadly, I sense that tomorrow night is going to be the night where this old soldier starts to fade away.
PROGNOSTIFICATION: Bradley , UD , Campbell
Think I got it all wrong? Still like ol’ Nate? Well, so do the guys over at Pound 4 Pound. If you’re looking to lay down some money on the Galaxxy, take a listen below. It’ll put you in a spending mood. Also, of course I’m omitting discussing the other big fight on the card, Devon Alexander vs. Junior Witter. I just don’t have the time to go into it in depth – I’ll keep it simple and say that I like Alexander. One final thing – here’s my piece from today over at The Sporting Blog on a topic I know all Masians are very interested in – Is Pacquiao-Cotto Going to Be Called Off?
July 31st, 2009 at 12:25 pm
I like Campbell stopping Bradley one minute into the 10th round. I also think Manny is simply playing games trying to sweeten the deal for himself. I think he knows a 7th title gives him even more nogotiating power against Floyd, I doubt he really cares about the WBO belt it’s simply a tool that will work for him when Floyd and Manny sit down to do the deal. This fight will happen because Team Pacquiao knows that this is a fight that they will win and it will solidify Manny as P4P best. Floyd can beat JMM like a drum but it won’t yeild the results that a win over Miguel Cotto will.
Arum caved to Manny’s wants back in January. Manny had agreed to a 50-50 split then said it’s not good enough weeks later. Arum gave in and gave him a slightly bigger percentage. Manny is now going back to the same formula…agree to a deal, then threaten to kill the deal and sit back and watch the money men try to save the deal. My boy Roberto Duran use to stare at opponents before fights in an effort to intimidate them and gain an edge in the fight and famously use to say “those who blink…blow”…Arum blinked. We’ll see if he does it again. Arum may lean on Cotto to give up whatever Manny wants.
July 31st, 2009 at 12:34 pm
large…i think your analysis is pretty spot on….i will still have a hard time letting go of the galaxxy warrior though…that night when i had a few bills on him against juan at 4-1 was spectacular
ill give my official prediction tomorrow
July 31st, 2009 at 1:07 pm
by the way brad…pac is not beating floyd…when this fight goes down…i smell a bet between you and i…
and large…i have already booked my flight to vegas for the 13th….just waiting on the presale ticket sale because i dont even wanna mess around and wait on my freebie connect and then have it fall through…i will be there no question
July 31st, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Word Ricky – we will hang. If it happens – I am really starting to wonder.
Why do I have a feeling that I’m going to be the only guy here who takes Bradley?
Just a note for any newcomers – there is no contest on Alexander/Witter.
July 31st, 2009 at 1:25 pm
large…i really cant see how this fight doesnt happen…i really firmly believe pac wants no part of shane….and as ive maintained…while people always see shane, floyd, cotto need pac….pac needs those 3 names just as much…..if he doesnt fight cotto this winter…who would he fight??? those are the only 3 star names for him….i just think there is alot of posturing by pacs camp…as brad mentioned…they nearly ruined the hatton fight…i think they are very wary arum and his tactics….i think maybe what floyd has had to say recently about arum has begun to permeate their brains…these guys might actually think they can do a better job running his career…and maybe they are about to flex their muscle and show how much influence they have with pac….cuz seems like the type to side with his boys/fam over his promoter…..but i think in the end…this fight gets done…i just cant see it not…
July 31st, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Ricky when I bet on fights (any sporting event really) these days with my friends, the standard bet is 8 lbs of Italian sausage. Money holds no real interest to me. I never had a health respect for money which may explains why I have so little of it. So if you want to wager 8 lbs of sausage on Pacqiuao- Mayweather… I’m game. However, I have a feeling it won’t happen til about a year from now.
July 31st, 2009 at 1:38 pm
hmmmm…not really a big sausage fan myself…lol…unless its of the breakfast variety….well figure something out
by the way…heres what your boy matt stafford was up to this summer
http://boston.3432.voxcdn.com/wp-content/gallery/matthew-stafford/ms2.jpg
http://boston.3432.voxcdn.com/wp-content/gallery/matthew-stafford/ms6.jpg
July 31st, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Not only did Campbell not make weight for Funeka, he lost to Funeka. (Ignore the official results completely; some judges just value one power shot more than 15 jabs no matter what you tell them.) Without a few of the power shots that are assisted by being an overweight lightweight, Funeka would have probably won a split decision even against the wall of ignorance he faced. Which is to say, I’m not impressed with Campbell’s direction coming in here.
I’ll make the odd pick to increase my odds, and go for the Bradley knockout, 11th round, 2:10. Campbell can be frustrated, and when he’s frustrated, he fails to defend himself. Getting outscrapped is going to frustrate the Misspelled Warrior. The rest follows from there. Bradley may be a second-rate talent, but I just have a feeling that unlike Campbell, he’ll get the breaks and play the game in such a way that he’ll be able to maximize it.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Ricky we were 0-16 last year. You can’t bring us down down any further. No football fans in the long history of the NFL can understand how we feel. We’re the equivilant of Hiroshima survivors… we experienced something no one else ever has. Nothing scares us. Let Matt flick off people and nail blond chicks, we don’t care…just win a fucking football game for us this season.
When Pacquiao and Mayweather do fight we’ll figure out what to wager. In a perfect world, we’ll both be at the fight so that will simplifing things…but we’ll see.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Gimme Campbell by ref’s stoppage 2:30 into the 9th after Timothy takes a couple of trips to the canvas.
July 31st, 2009 at 4:19 pm
I have a feeling Campbell doesn’t really have his heart into this one. I’d venture a guess of Bradley by UD, say 117-111 x2 and a 116-112.
And I think the Pac-Cotto thing is definitely all about some buyer’s remorse on the Pacquiao side. A loss here means no Mayweather. I know Roach has said he wants Pacquiao to fight this fall, but I think he’s probably thinking a few months more is worth the wait for a Floyd fight.
Oh, and you’re spot on about what Roach would be saying if the tables were turned. There’s no way he’d concede to have his fighter’s title on the line in a fight his man had to contest below the weight limit. Cotto’s playing his hand perfectly on this. That title means nothing to him in the welterweight picture. He’ll get the fights he wants at 147 with or without the WBO strap.
Has anyone heard any news about Cotto getting a new trainer?
July 31st, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Great to see you teaming up with Pound 4 Pound!
Alright–I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that Nate Campbell wins by decision. I know that Bradley has “home field,” but I think that Campbell has the experience to deal with a fighter like Bradley, but maybe not the knockout power to end it early.
Campbell UD — 116-112 x2,115-114
July 31st, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Ok, I’m going to go with Campbell win by KO 1:30 into round 5. Not sure why, it just feels right.
July 31st, 2009 at 7:28 pm
I’ll take the young athlete over the veteran banger any day.
Bradley by UD (118-110, 118-110, 116-112)
July 31st, 2009 at 7:37 pm
By the way, sure are some rabid Paq supporters on The Sporting Blog willing to shit on Large for some even-keel reporting on some possible Paq shenanigans re: Cotto fight.
July 31st, 2009 at 8:05 pm
Yeah, Kopper, reading the Sporting Blog comments really makes you appreciate the level of discourse at the Mas.
For the weight issue, I think PacMan’s argument (or I guess Roach’s) is contradictory. They want the title on the line at 145 because they want to be 7-division champs. Well, if that is the sole reason, isn’t it kind of tainted if you are not fighting at the division limit? 145 lbs is not a division. Why not make the welterweight title fight at a catch-weight of 141, then. Gets kind of silly
July 31st, 2009 at 8:10 pm
My pick is Campbell by unanimous decision, winning fairly easily. I really don’t think Bradley is very good. I’ll say Campbell by 118-110, 117-111, 117-111.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:48 pm
I think Campbell wins by majority decision in a fight that’s clearly his… Say 114-114 and two 117-111. Really, I don’t feel confident, I just like Campbell.
As for Pac-Cotto, I’m surprised Cotto has so many defenders. This is a fairly common thing, the big four of the 80′s did it, Hopkins has done it often recently. I mean, would Cotto really go around defending the belt if he got sparked by Manny?
Not that I really begrudge Cotto, I think he wants to get paid. I do too. But this just seems like the perfect time for Arum to fly in with 250k in cash and make it happen.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Campbell by close decision: 2x 114:113,115:112.
@Shoefly: Cotto would vacated the belt. Wouldn’t it be funny if Cotto vacated and the freaking WBO just sanctioned the bout for the “new” title?
I’m with you Large. If you want to make history, you don’t do it with catch-weights.
August 1st, 2009 at 8:07 am
Tommy I’m with you on the comment level over at The Sporting Blog….my personal favorite was the “Is Cotto gay or something for fearing to put his title on the line”…classic stuff. You just don’t get that at the Mas. It’s like going back in time to the my middle school playground arguing boxing with my 8th grade buddies. I will say this, this catch weight topic is for some odd reason explosive. There was a similar story to Large’s on a different site about the Cotto-Pac catchweight (this was before they agreed on 145) and it seemed to get these impassioned responses. 200 plus people replied to that story and the responses had the fiery feel of an abortion debate. I’m not so sure why people feel so passionately about this topic.
August 1st, 2009 at 9:03 am
Wait, Cotto is going to drop the belt anyway? See, that’ why I know it’s going to happen. He’s not going to do it just out of principle/spite. Also, I guarantee HBO is gonna want it to be for a belt to help with the promotion.
Anyway, I hate all this stuff. Everybody gets freaked out by things we can only speculate on; and then usually the fight happens and nobody even remembers. If you recall Manny almost pulled out against Hatton until they gave him a sweetener. It’ll get worked out and no one will ever remember.
August 1st, 2009 at 10:26 am
Who knows but I’ll say Campbell wins by KO round 9; 1:45.
August 1st, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Bradley wins by SD 114-113, 115-112, 112-115
August 1st, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Bradley UD at 117-111 and 116-112 x2, and so lies Nathaniel.
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