Pascal’s Wager and Other Thoughts
posted by Large
Pascal’s wager is a suggestion posed by the French philosopher Blaise Pascal that even though the existence of God cannot be determined through reason, a person should wager as though God exists, because so living has everything to gain, and nothing to lose.
Jean Pascal took quite a gamble last night. Never known as the hardest of punching 68′s, he jumped to light heavy to take a shot at a title belt against the rugged Romanian, Adrian Diaconu. It was a brilliant promotion, two Montreal-based fighters duking it out at the Bell Centre, and the fight was a corker from start to finish, as Pascal took his familiar approach of boxing, then brawling, then boxing/brawling, and all the while relying on what is emerging as one of the most cast-iron jaws in the entire sport.
There was a time when I was not all that enamored of Jean Pascal. He talks a big game, and about two years ago he started generating a buzz as the next big thing at 68. The fates seemed to be pointing towards a high-profile showdown between him and Edison Miranda, and Miranda showed up ringside in Florida to watch Pascal face off with Omar Pittman on FNF. In that fight, Pascal danced and showboated and then nearly got whupped, as Pittman went hardhead on him and turned the tables mid-fight in what almost turned into one of those ever-so-satisfying hunted-becomes-the-hunter moments.
But Pascal survived, got the UD, and then got into a farcical screaming match with Miranda that didn’t impress me much. On the whole, I came away that night thinking that Pascal was another good-looking bag of hot gas at 68, Jeff Lacy on the bike.
I have since revised that opinion, and one fight pretty much turned the trick. Pascal’s loss to Carl Froch last year was one the dark-horse FOY candidates, a jaw-dropping bombfest in which each man’s chin gave a startlingly good account of itself. Froch, whose beard right now looks like it’s destined for the IBHOF (International Beard Hall of Fame), emerged as the victor in that contest of wills, but the rock ‘em sock ‘em robots action that night led me to believe that beneath the veneer of Pascal’s pretty-boy, Ali-shuffling, rude boy pose beat the heart of one uniquely tough son of a bitch.
Last night, he consolidated that suspicion. He razzle-dazzled Diaconu for three rounds, and then that SOB’s heart of his got the better of him and he went in for the kill. Possessed of an all-star beard himself, Diaconu held up well, and gave as good as he got, but in the end he simply couldn’t match Pascal’s fighting fury. There were moments in the fight when it seemed like either man might not make it, and yet both found second, third and fourth winds. It was a Froch/Pascal kind of party, basically, although not quite as blustery.
Now Pascal, having won big at the Casino de Montreal, is left to ponder what to do with all his chips, and me, I’m thinking he should head on over to the Chad Dawson table and go all in. Of course, Dawson has a mighty tough game of poker ahead of him with the Road Warrior, but if he pulls through that one, a Dawson/Pascal fight is an alluring prospect. Maybe Pascal doesn’t have quite enough juice with an American audience to lure Dawson to the fray, but then again, Dawson is fighting a rematch with fucking Glen Johnson, which should tell you everything you need to know about his matchmaking prospects. He gets through that test alive, and I’m thinking a bout with a blown-up 68 who thinks he’s a boxer and is actually a brawler and who does not have KO power is going to look like a walk in the park for Bad Chad.
Based on the evidence, however, it seems to me that wagering on an easy night in the ring with Jean Pascal is a sucker bet. Man comes to play.
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Below are two of my Friday pieces from The Sporting Blog, one about the Kelly Pavlik rehab rumor, and then my weekly boxing notes covering Wlad/Chagaev, Vital/Haye and Arum’s suggesting that Sugar Shane fight Clottey.
“Late Wednesday night, a rumor shot through the boxing world that middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik had checked himself into a rehab center for alcohol abuse. As is usually the case, the source of the rumor was the internet, and a story written by Pedro Fernandez at RingTalk.com.” Round by Round: Weekly Boxing Notes
“I don’t know if Bob Arum is looking to add insult to Shane Mosley’s insult, but the fact that he is publicly talking about trying to make a fight between Mosley and Josh Clottey, an Arum client, is definitely pouring salt into Mosley’s wounds.”
June 20th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Hey Large great stuff as usual. I love reading your stuff even when I don’t agree with you. Being an old “everyone-was-tougher-in-my-day” kind of guy I got excited when I saw the ‘Brawl in Montreal’in the title to one of your stories. I was hoping you’d reflect back on that great fight. It was 29 years ago to the day that it happened ( I’m like a history major when it comes to remembering dates of big fights). It, of course, was the first of 9 fights between Duran,Leonard,Hagler and Hearns, that George Kimball would later call the “last great era of boxing.” Great it was…I just hope it wasn’t the last.
June 20th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Wow. I hadn’t seen either Pascal or Diaconu before last night, but Pascal looked beautiful to my eyes: fast, comfortable, and even the more powerful puncher. I thought the scores were too kind to Diaconu. Pascal owned that fight from start to finish. Just when I was beginning to think Dawson was the only under-forty boxer worth watching at 175…
At least there’s one fight to (reasonably) hope for at 175 after Dawson-Johnson II.
June 20th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
i made a couple hundred on pascal last night at +105…i said i liked pascal in the comments section of shoeflys piece….a dawson/pascal matchup does look intriguing…and should dawson get by the roadwarrior, gentleman, glencoffe johnson…it could happen…i really dont know what else would be left for dawson…because there certainly isnt alot of interesting fights for him if ‘nard doesnt wanna do it
im sure froch is looking to matchup with lucien bute…but if that match somehow falls through..i have to wonder if a rematch with pascal for the light heavyweight strap would appeal to froch(provided he feels like he can be effective at 175)…i would think if he were able to grab a light heavyweight crown and stay unbeaten…it might be his one chance at luring calzaghe out for one last dance
June 20th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Brad, thanks, and you know I love fighting with you almost as much as getting praised by you. I admit that I had no idea that today was the anniversary of the Brawl in Montreal. Great fucking fight, the ultimate exhibit in the don’t-brawl-with-a-brawler school. (Sugar Ray, I believe, also sustained a cut in that one – uglyass fight).
Grz – yeah, Pascal looked like a f-real muhfuh last night, but I wouldn’t go too far with that if you haven’t seen him before. Diaconu is tough, but not exactly a world-beater. Remember that Pascal got a beating from Froch, and he took it like a man and gave some back as well, but still, when you’re getting tore up by Carl Froch you’ve got some holes in your game.
It did seem like if Pascal had boxed Diaconu for 12 rounds he could have pitched an easy shutout, although I agree with you that Diaconu got a little love on the scorecards as well. I’m on vacay right now with my family and I watched the fight with my Dad, who asked me after the fight if I thought Pascal had it in the bag. I said, “well, given that he lost a 10-8 round, he’d need to have won seven rounds just to get a draw… and I don’t think he won three.” I didn’t score it myself (my one caveat to vacation boxing viewing – I don’t score) but I thought it was a rout for Pascal across the board.
And yes, suddenly there’s an appealing fight out there for Chad Dawson. Not going to make him rich, but it’s something kind of hot. Maybe they’ll get smart and do it in Montreal. It’s got to be one of the top five fight towns in North America up there. Franchise comes by his fight cred honestly.
Wlad/Chag going on now as I write. Got no Classic at this beach abode I’m in. Ah well. I got the Tivo humming back at the house. I’ll nap through that one when I get home. Would be some shit though if Chagaev managed to jab and grab his way to a win on points.
June 20th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
large…i had to read your piece and reply just to wake myself up from wlad/chagaev…doctor finally stopped it after the 9th…bad cut over chagaevs left eye…and wlad had him cornered for the last minute of the 9th just measuring right hands
June 20th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
I should have put cash down on my 9th round KO prediction. I know people will play down his Klitschko’s competition but he’s a bad man. That right hand is no joke, it seems like every power punch had a serious purpose. He doesn’t play around in there.
June 20th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Large, you’ve got a point about getting outboxed by Froch. That’s not a good sign. And Diaconu didn’t look exactly like a champ last night. So I’ll check my enthusiasm for now.
It looks like “white Tyson” just had his McBride moment (minus the crying). That was as predictable as can be. I’m going to start setting my watch by Wlad’s jabs.
June 20th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
I shouldn’t say that cause I covered boxing here in MTL and should be neutral and all, but Pascal really deserved that belt. A lot of people in town don’t like him cause of his flashy attitude but he is, with Bute, one of the most serious and talented fighter to come out of Quebec since Eric Lucas.
But alas, we won’t see Dawson/Pascal for a while. Now he’s going for the mandatory Branco. Then it’s Pascal/Diaconu II (it’s in the contract, anyway, but we all know what contracts are worth…) and then, maybe Dawson. But the two big promoters in Montreal will maybe try to score a Mega-event: Bute/Pascal is what everyone is talking about right now. It’s a long shot, but that would be something!
June 20th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Gabriel, that’s Silvio Branco, yes? The same guy who lost to Stipe Drews a few years ago? These fucking alphabet straps, man – they’re not worth the headache.
It’s funny how Montreal is its own universe where Pascal Bute is probably an infinitely more appealing prospect than Pascal Dawson. Probably a better make for Pascal anyway – he’s got moxie, for sure, but I’m not sure he could handle Bad Chad.
Klitsch mowing down Chagaev was definitely predictable. Wlad is definitely going to be a tough out for anyone right now. He’s gigantic and strong as hell and now, courtesy of Manny Steward, he knows how to box. When he starts measuring that right of his, whoa Nelly. I’m thinking that’s the single punch in boxing I would least like to get hit with (I’m putting an iron-fisted Margarito liver shot a close second).
June 21st, 2009 at 6:10 am
Klit-Chaga was an enormous show – I don’t know how much of it ESPN Classic showed. Mando Diao singing a changed version of “dance with somebody” as “fight with somebody” – a video of Klitschko training with a coaled-dirty face in a coal-mine – fireworks and all that stuff.
The fight itself was rather boring imo. Klitschko actually got only tagged once – after the bell.
It just still feels too controlled – Chag was a sitting duck in the last minute of round 9. And Klit just doesn’t open up. He tagged him with right hands, but then always stepped back and measured again… he could have gotten Chag out, but choosed to play it safe.. again. :-/
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:09 am
Pascal looked good. I thought Diaconu would be too strong but he was a step behind all night long. Dawson, Bute, Froch, Kessler – even the geritol trio of RJJ, B-Hop and Tarver would all be interesting fights for Pascal.
It would be nice if Versus kept putting fights on like this with some regularity. Something tells me the only reason they televised this was because they were obligated to showcase The Contender winner Troy Ross. I think for title fights that aren’t quite Showtime or HBO material – but deserve better than the $30K license fee from ESPN2 – Versus could definitely pick up the slack. Guys like Adamek, Pascal, Daniel Santos, Cory Spinks, Andreas Kotelnik, Edwin Valero, Jorge Linares, Celestino Cabellaro, Joseph Agbeko, Brian Viloria – I’d like to see them defend their titles and Versus would be perfect.
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:52 am
Trickster – I Tivo’d the fight and kind of fast-forwarded through it. I don’t know if they showed the Klitschko-in-a-coal-mine video or anything. There was a big article on The Ring on-line about how boxing in Germany is huge right now but it will soon dry up if there aren’t any homegrown German stars. I thought that was interesting.
Large – I read your TSN article on Pavlik. I had no idea that Pavlik might be in rehab. I haven’t read Pedro Fernandez’ column since the early days of boxing coverage on the net in the early 2000′s. I guess he’s still coming up with stuff occasionally.
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Kurt – he’s either coming up with stuff or making it up. Don’t know who to believe on that one, but it’s looking more and more like the whole rumor was bullshit.
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Kurt – got any link for that story? Couldn’t find it on a quick look at the ring-page.
I’m not sure about this thesis thought – the last real big german boxing stars have been Henry Maske and (not as much) Sven Ottke. Everyone else is “adopted” – sure seems like, the Germans don’t have much problems with that.
The Klitschkos took their heart with their personality and out-of-the-ring-charme, but Abraham and Sturm (who are both not born in Germany) draw good crowds and Dimitrenko and Boytsov are allready waiting for their time. As long as the big TV-Stadions (remember, boxing is on free-tv here) push the sport, I don’t see a problem in popularity.
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:27 pm
I love the atmosphere of those fights up in Montreal, there is something really old-tyme about it; you can imagine the cigar smoke. I too thought Pascal ran with it, 9-3 or something like that, he just had the tools and Diacanu was too deliberate. Still, a really fun fight, as was the Bute/Andrade fight, also up there I believe. I don’t think either of these guys are going to really break through to the very top level, but they’re going to be fun to watch. I don’t see where a Pascal/Dawson fight would make sense at the moment though, seems each has more lucrative options.
As opposed to Klitschko in Germany, whose atmosphere I find unsettling and somewhat apocalyptic and I complain about at length on boxiana.
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Shoefly – you can link your Boxiana shit up on here – either in comments or in posts. You’ve got some fans over here at the Mas right now – I’m sure they’d be happy to read some more Fly.
I don’t exactly see what more lucrative options Chad Dawson has for him right now. Obviously, if he’s fighting Glen Johnson, his options are slim and none. I think a Pascal fight would be perfect for him – probably going to win, probably going to be an asskicker of a fight. Dawson doesn’t have any big names to make his star bones with right now, so he needs to take an alternate path by having some exciting fights. Pascal would help him out there I think. Plus, now he has the WBC belt.
Pascal, though – he probably will want to hold onto that strap for a while before just handing it over to Bad Chad. That Bute fight in Montreal seems like it needs to happen. Unreal that he has to fight Silvio Branco first though.
June 22nd, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Look out for Bute, we will know this week whether his next opponent will be Andrade or Froch. I feel both those options are insane. A rematch against Andrade would be killer (you know what I mean if you saw the first!) And a Froch fight would also be great.
The only fear I have is that neither of these fights will be in Montreal. Andrade doesn’t want to fight in MTL (again, you know what I mean if you saw the first…) And apparently Froch people want to make it in England. That’s a shame cause both – especially Bute-Andrade II – would have set the city aflame.
June 22nd, 2009 at 9:46 pm
Will do, Large. Dawson is in a similar situation to Hopkins all those years, but Hopkins was at least had a good ring entrance and more entertaining style (in his early days.) Dawson is just kind of dull. I guess it didn’t work out with him and Floyd Sr. but I think he’s the type of guy who needs a celebrity trainer to hype him.
I’d been a little down on super middle/ light heavy, but reading about some of these matches I’m getting intrigued. They might not be be HBO fights, but any combination, of Bute, Andrade, Froch, Pascal, Dawson, or Diacanu all have intrigue.
June 23rd, 2009 at 1:30 am
Don’t forgte about Kessler Shoefly – I still think he could be a superstar if he wouldn’t have that stupid management. Atleast he found that out himself and is now only sidelined by the fight with his management.
June 23rd, 2009 at 8:46 am
I think Andrade deserves a rematch, but I can’t imagine it being a good fight. All Bute has to do is be more cautious, therefore making the fight less exciting and eventful. Bute/Froch would be a barn burner. I don’t know who would come out of that fight alive.
June 23rd, 2009 at 9:53 am
“All Bute has to do is be more cautious”. You’re right, but he knew that the first time. 12 rounds of Andrade going at you has the tendency to make that advice irrelevant. And there’s no way of knowing Bute won’t go down before the 12th this time.
After the first fight, Andrade said «I wish i went for the kill before». Now with Bute wanting to be more cautious and Andrade more agressive, I think it’s hard to predict a bad fight. I’m not saying it won’t happen, I’m just saying as far as rematch go, Bute/Andrade is far more appealing than, let’s see, Dawson/Tarver…
June 25th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
yo, where’s none other than me main man baggiesboy? nothing on the champions league? nothing on real madrid slapping a quarter of a billi on the counter and saying “we’ll take a kaka and a christiano, please”? nothing on the US men’s national team shocking spain?
August 9th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
[...] out of fights with injuries. Though I have yet to watch the fight on my DVR, from what I read, Jean Pascal’s fight with Adrian Diaconu was great and action paced. Pascal won a Unanimous Decision to win a Super Middleweight belt and set himself up for [...]
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