posted by Large

Usually I make you wait for this, but in that we all know that Dawson is going to win this thing, I’m going to throw down the prognog right here at the top:

PROGNOSTIFICATION: Dawson – TKO9 – Tarver

I admit that I’m speaking a little with my heart on this one, but I’m also feeling it enough to put a c-note on the under, which is set at 11 1/2 rounds.

Like most boxing fans, I’m utterly bored at the prospect of a Dawson/Tarver rematch. “Ishtar II” is what Steve Kim termed it over at MaxBoxing, a concise way of summing up the situation. Nobody cared about the first fight, and less than nobody showed up to watch it. As an event, it was devoid of drama, with Tarver looking old and slow and uninspired and Dawson looking young and fast and, well, uninspired. Unfortunately for everyone involved (including Tarver himself, oddly), Tony had a rematch clause written into the original contract with Dawson, and for some bizarre reason, he elected to exercise it. And so here we are – Ishtar II is upon us, the sequel to the movie that no one saw or liked in the first place.

As you may recall, I killed Dawson here at the Mas after the first Tarver fight for taking his foot off the gas and hot-dogging his way through the late rounds instead of going gangbusters for the stoppage. I thought that Tarver, who’s never been stopped, was ripe to be had that night, and Dawson simply didn’t commit himself to the task. To me, that was inexcusable for a guy in Dawson’s category, an extremely talented fighter in search of a following and the big-payday stratosphere. A guy like that needs to make a statement every time he steps in the ring, and when he’s got Antonio Tarver, the biggest name he’s ever faced by far, looking like he’s ready to go, well, goddamn. Show him the door already.

The insane thing for this fight is that quite by chance (or not “chance,” I suppose – I imagine the good folks at HBO were hoping something like this would happen when they set up the schedule), this disastrous and completely unnecessary rematch could have quite a television audience tomorrow night (although, once again, not much of a live audience – I hear they can’t give those tickets away), due to the fact that the broadcast of Dawson/Tarver II also will include the first free re-airing of the Pacquiao/Hatton devastation. Usually with these PPV re-airings, HBO runs the replay first and then shows the live fight afterwards, but I wonder if they won’t get wise tomorrow night and flip the script. Keeping people waiting to see “The Punch” until after the main event would be an excellent way to get a lot of casual eyeballs on the network’s latest investment and hopeful star, namely one Mr. Bad Chad Dawson, as he plies his fast and furious trade.

If that happens, oh brother Chad, you better heed the advice of my Largeness and put Tarver away. And do it with some brain-blasting spectacularosity. There’s nothing that Tarver has done in years that leads me to think that he has a chance in hell of handling you tomorrow night, and Vegas agrees with me on that, putting you as an 8-1 favorite. That you will win seems like a foregone conclusion. But how will you win? That is the $64,000 question, my friend.

You will have to risk some small measure of danger. Tarver’s straight left hand always clutches a ticket to Sleepsville, and as is well documented in the fight game, power is the last thing to leave an aging fighter. But given the deterioration of Tarver’s speed and reflexes compared to the unnaturally healthy condition of your own, I’m thinking the small but frightening risk of an unexpected ring-nap is one that you’ll just have to brave if you want to do the job right. Just consider what’s at stake. You go out and pull a Pac Man on Tarver’s ass tomorrow night and you instantly up your Q factor in a way that no fight that’s out there for you right now could equal. All because of Manny Pacquiao. (God bless you Manny Pacquiao.)

Of course, Tarver is a tough guy to knock down, let alone out. I have to imagine that he ain’t going out like no Ricky Hatton. But I do see the accumulation of punishment potentially ending up in either a ref or a corner stoppage late in the fight. Only if you will it, though, Bad Chad – only if you put the pedal to the metal and pound that motherfucker. So, you know. Make it do what it do. This is your mission should you choose to accept it, and the dossier is to be filed under the general heading of… “GET THAT MONEY SON!”

Random Notes

• Check this piece over at Boxing Scene. Looks like the Bobfather is backing off his two milly projections for the Pac/Hatton PPV numbers. Now we’re down to “north of 900,000″ in Arum’s words. Oh please let it do a mill…
• I plan to be on the scene for the big Andre Ward/Edison Miranda smackdown in O-town next Saturday (although I don’t have my credentials yet). Tough town, the O. I’m looking forward to seeing those bangers over there coming out for one of their own. Also looking forward to seeing the Pantera up close and personal. Never seen him live before.
• To be filed under “Shut the fuck up you old git”: Sir Henry Cooper hates on David Haye. Sir Henry thinks that Haye’s behavior is driving fans away, proving that what he knows about fans couldn’t stuff a sofa. They’ve already sold fifty thousand bloody bleedin tickets for Haye/Klitschko for Pete’s sake. You knock Ali off his feet, I guess you’re allowed to say whatever you want for the rest of your life. But does it have to make the papers?
• What weight is Mayweather/Marquez being fought at exactly? Does anyone know this beyond the shadow of a doubt?
• Did you see where Ricky Hatton’s lawyer, Gareth Williams, has been questioning Floyd Sr.’s motives in training Hatton? This because Floyd and Ricky have had no contact since Hatton’s near decapitation at the hands of Pacquiao last Saturday night. I can see where they’d be mad about that, but as far as “questioning his motives”, dah, what do you think, he wanted Hatton to get killed? “There were things in that training camp that weren’t right,” Williams said cryptically. Like what, Floyd showing up late every day and generally being half-assed about the whole venture? You can just chalk that up to his being a dick, I suspect.
• Not boxing-related, but very much of the Mas – this piece I did over at First Cuts about The Most Interesting Man in the World. Also, here are my weekly boxing notes over at The Sporting Blog.