A Cadillac and a Ford
posted by Large
In my book the only way a Ford beats a Cadillac is if the Caddy is like one of those new XLR-V coupes and the Ford is an F-150 and they’re competing in a towing contest.
What we have here is not a towing contest. What’s more, the Ford ain’t even a truck. He’s like, a Fusion.
But enough with the cars crap. What I’m getting at is this – for a fighter of average skills to beat a fighter of elite skills, there must be some x-factor that tilts the playing field in his direction and gives him at least a small chance at the upset, be it an advantage in size, power or heart.
Generally in these kinds of situations, that x-factor is power. The puncher’s chance. George Foreman on the button of Michael Moorer (funny that Moorer should come up, actually…). Oliver McCall with his eyes closed landing that wild miracle on Lennox’s glass chin.
But that’s not in play here. Hatton is not a particularly hard puncher and he’s never been the guy who changes a fight with one shot. He couldn’t stop Paulie Malignaggi, for Pete’s sake, who is borderline defenseless in the ring these days. Buddy McGirt had to do it for him (and I reiterate my feelings on that – shame on you Buddy).
No, if Hatton is going to stage the upset tomorrow night, one of the other two x-factors that can level a mismatch will tell the tale – size and, or, heart.
In my preview piece over The Sporting Blog today, How Ricky Hatton Could Beat Manny Pacquiao, I laid out in detail what I think Hatton’s size advantage will and won’t do for him tomorrow. Let me just summarize my feelings here – I don’t think it will do much. I’m guessing there will be maybe a seven-pound difference between the two men in the ring, which isn’t nothing by any means, but given the fact that there’s no significant height or reach advantage, and given Pacquiao’s speed and sheer strength (those of you who have seen the man train up close and personal know that he has virtual tree-trunks for legs), I just don’t see where Hatton is going to be bullying Manny around the ring in the way that he seems to think he will.
The only way I see the size difference telling a tale is in the way each man experiences the punch of the other. Pacquiao hit David Diaz and Oscar with bombs all night and, though he gave those guys a serious whupping, he had to land a LOT of shots to do it in each case. I think we all can agree that Manny doesn’t have near the pop at 140 that he did at, say, 126. If Hatton is not bothered much by Pacquiao’s punches, if his shots feel to him like those of a blown-up junior lightweight, it definitely will increase his options in there.
Likewise, there is a question as to what Hatton’s punches will do to Manny. Pacquiao really never has been hit before by a guy above 130 pounds. Diaz and Oscar landed about three clean punches on Manny between them. Even in my worst prognosis, I figure Hatton to fare better than that, and when he digs with those trademark hooks to the midsection, he conceivably could strike gold.
Floyd Sr. has been talking a lot about how much Pacquiao wants to be moving forward to be at his most effective. Of course, so does Hatton, and Floyd thinks it’s likely that Ricky is going to win that contest, which will put Manny at a severe disadvantage.
I agree with him that Hatton probably will be moving forward all night, but just as it didn’t help him much against Floyd Jr., I don’t see it helping him tomorrow night. Pacquiao really has become something special when it comes to ring generalship and working at angles. Not moving forward for Pacquiao does not mean in the least moving backward. It means floating like a bee and stinging like a wasp.
And that brings us to the final x-factor that either will or won’t carry the evening for Hatton – heart. As I wrote over at The Sporting Blog, I tend to think the only way Ricky wins this thing is by going all Tony Margarito in there, sans, one would hope, the loaded gloves. I think Pacquiao is going to look magnificent for at least the first six rounds of this fight. His mobility is like nothing that Hatton ever has faced before, and his handspeed, though it’s not quite at Money May’s level, is not far off. Daddy Floyd and Ricky would both have us believe that Hatton has transformed himself into a master boxer during the course of however many weeks he’s been working with Floyd Sr., but let me be gentle about the matter and say that I am skeptical. It’s very rare that you see a zebra change his stripes at this stage of his fight career. No matter how adept Hatton has become with the intricate Mayweatherian mitt-work (mitt-work which, let us recall, he once scoffed at as “fiddle-faddle,” the ultimate insult in Hatton-land), you put him in there against a Pacquiao-level talent and I have no doubts whatsoever that he will revert to whatever he knows best in the space of the first two rounds of the fight.
And, let’s face it – his best is nowhere near good enough. Hatton’s fans can only hope that he’s been able to come away with a few tricks from Floyd Joy that he can rely on to help him weather the onslaught. If he’s lucky, the foremost among them will be an improvement in his footwork and his ability to cut off the ring. Because I think this fight is going to look like Margarito/Cotto early, with Manny circling and pouncing on Hatton, making him look helpless and slow at times, and piling up the points on the scorecard and the welts on Ricky’s face.
If Hatton’s going to win, he’s going to have to be relentless, he’s going to have to be nimble enough on his feet to trap Manny on a regular basis and dish out punishment downstairs, and he’s going to have to absorb a LOT of punishment along the way himself. If he can do that and hold up through six or seven rounds, maybe, just maybe, he’ll slow Pacquiao down to the extent that the second half of the fight will turn in his favor.
It’s a longshot. The thing in the above scenario that seems the most improbable to me is the idea that Hatton will seriously hurt Pacquiao enough to make it interesting. In the end, I feel about this a little the way I felt about Winky/PWill. If Hatton had a big equalizer punch in his bag, I’d give him a decent chance. But in that he doesn’t, I give him next to no chance whatsoever. He’s outclassed in just about every way, and I feel very strongly that it’s going to get early in there late for the man. With Pac’s stamina, accuracy and killer instinct, I see him finishing Hatton late after giving him one mother of a beating in the meantime.
PROGNOSTIFICATION – Pacquiao – TKO11 – Hatton
Some final notes…
- I think we got the regular contest going here – right I-Berg? Get your prognostifications in on the comments and closest to the button wins a shirt of their choice.
- People, people… Mayweather/Marquez looks like it’s made. Of course that rumor gets floated today, just so Money can steal a little of the desert thunder.
- And speaking of desert thunder, I actually think there’s going to be some desert thunder tomorrow. Forecast calls for thunderstorms. In the got-damn desert. Better not fuck up my flight.
- You guys see that recap of the EA Fight Night simulation of the fight? It was kind of ill.
- PPV takes a hit from that Celtics/Bulls game 7 on Saturday night, as our man Jimmy V pointed out in the comments today. No revising your PPV estimates, though. If only Paul Pierce weren’t such a pussy…
- Look for my pre-fight posts and my post-fight breakdown from ringside tomorrow night over at The Sporting Blog. I likely will get some shit up here as well late tomorrow and then Sunday as I straggle home.
- Ricky Roe, I’ll shout at you – I get in around 2 p.m. Any other Masians gonna be on the scene?
May 1st, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Closest to the the winner and the round or the judges scorecards for a decision wins shirt of your choice. Hit it on the button and get five shirts of your choice or a shirt and a hoodie. Must post before the fight starts to win. Good luck good sirs.
May 1st, 2009 at 6:21 pm
I think Pacquiao will win, but I don’t see Hatton getting knocked out or Mayweather throwing in the towel. I’ll say Manny wins by UD, 117-111 across the board.
May 1st, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Pacquiao stops Hatton 1 minute into the 8th round….Floyd Joy then quickly distances himself from Hatton saying “if he could have trained Hatton earlier in his career he could got him past Pacquiao but you can’t teach an old dog new tricks”….or something close to that. I’m sure Floyd Sr. is already fine tuning his face saving post-fight speech. Should be great. I can’t wait. Manny looked very relaxed at the weigh-in. I think he’ll look better than ever tomorrow night.
May 1st, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Put me down for Pacquiao KO9, let’s say 2:15 of the round.
May 1st, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Manny TKO in 10. Because I rate Hatton one round better than David Diaz.
Yeah, the PPV will take a hit because of Bulls-Celtics. As a Chicagoan who was about 17 rows from Joakim Noah when he dunked (and about 15 rows from the Rev. Jesse Jackson, natch) I’d be lying if I told you I wasn’t going to be flipping back and forth. Add in the post-Derby buzz, and the Blackhawks in the 2nd round for the first time since El Mero was just a little guerito…it’s a loaded day.
May 1st, 2009 at 7:09 pm
2 minutes in to the 10th, if that info is needed.
May 1st, 2009 at 7:24 pm
maybe i’m overestimating pac-man’s power, or underestimating hatton’s chin (or both), but i think this goes the way that pac-man vs DLH went…..manny will control pretty much every minute of the fight (minus hatton’s all-too-frequent wrestling/holding efforts), he’ll land all types of shots, from all sorts of crazy ass angles, before the ref saves hatton from his own pride sometime during the 6th round. hatton’s probably feeling himself a bit too much after his win over a game, but equally soft-touch, paulie malignaggi….so i fully expect hatton to be a bit more reckless than DLH (which mostly makes me worry about accidental butts ruining the night).
floyd jr knocked hatton out and i’m not convinced pretty boy has much more power than manny, especially since i fully expect manny to land at least one hundred more punches than floyd did during his fight with the hitman.
but i can’t really even look at this fight objectively, i love manny pacquiao (and i sort of have a weird crush on jinkee). Manny by TKO in the 6th.
PS hatton’s old trainer is like something straight out of a guy ritchie film, right?
May 1st, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Manny by TKO in the 7th. A little over two minutes in, to be specific.
Should be fun.
May 1st, 2009 at 7:41 pm
I’m gonna go with Ricky Hatton by KO. This is very close fight to call, but I’m feelin’ bold, so I’m picking the Hitman to stop the Pac Man with a body shot in round 4. Manny Pacquiao’s been stopped twice by body punches from much smaller men than Hatton, which leads me to believe that Ricky will be too big and too strong for Manny tomorrow.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Pac-man by referee’s stoppage in the 6th. Speed still killz. I hope the Bulls game goes to triple OT again so I don’t have to be tortured by that criminally shitty undercard.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Revised prediction, after reading Adam’s post, gimme Pac by ref’s stoppage in the 5th, after Ricky’s 3rd trip to the canvas.
May 1st, 2009 at 10:11 pm
Hatton TKO in the 7th. The only chance I see Hatton having here is if Manny gets busted open early by a headbutt.
P.S. Abregu and Garcia are throwing bombs over bagdad fight now. This is insane.
May 1st, 2009 at 11:57 pm
Manny by TKO in the 6th; let’s say 2:35 into the round? I know you have to cover your bases and look at all the angles Large, and then the fight seems like it might be a lot closer than you originally thought it might be as you go down the list of what ifs, but the gut instinct has got to tell you its really not going to be close.
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:33 am
Pack UD at 117-111 x 2 and a 116-112. Maybe the power isn’t there, and maybe Not-Slick Rick can hold on for dear life.
(But then since Large can’t pick a Pacquiao fight to save his life, it’s probably going to be Hatton in a wash, no?)
But all I want to talk about is Marquez (aka God) versus Mayweather. Damn those Mexicanos. And Lord don’t tell me there going in there at 47, which of course they will be (especially since that’s what Manny did with Oscar, and you know JMM is on some insane vendetta-vendetta-vendetta-type skeeze.) Large you laid this one out perfectly somewhere sometime I think when you didn’t think the fight would ever happen because it’s just too perfect a comeback fight for the Money Man. We’ll see though. Juan is remember God and all…
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:36 am
Hatton in the 9th ko
May 2nd, 2009 at 2:32 am
Pac by pretty close decision: 2x 115:113, 116:112.
I think the better fighter will win, but I weight the factor weight a bit more than you did Large. Manny has never been hit by anybody above 130 – he will be tonight. Ricky may not be as fast as Manny, but he is not slow, he will hit him and Manny will feel it. On the opposite side, as you said too: Manny has hitten the ghost boy and Diaz with about a trillion of hard shots before they went – I don’t see Hatton going down.
That, and the fact that Ricky aggressive style often wins him rounds, makes it a closer fight for me.
May 2nd, 2009 at 5:05 am
I’m going with Paq UD. Cards at 118-110 x 2, 116-112. Also going with Desert Party, I Want Revenge, Friesian Fire for my Derby Trifecta.
May 2nd, 2009 at 6:58 am
Looks like I Want Revenge is a scratch… New Trifecta pick is Desert Party, Friesian Fire, Advice. I’ll be ripping up this ticket like I rip them up every year….
May 2nd, 2009 at 8:07 am
Hatton, by decision: 115-113 Hatton, 117-111 Hatton,116-112 Pac.
May 2nd, 2009 at 8:11 am
I’ve got Manny winning by UD 117-111 for one judge, then 118-110 for the other two. I just don’t Manny’s power affecting Ricky like it did a weight drained Oscar. Hatton won’t be shut out, but he won’t make it particularly interesting either.
May 2nd, 2009 at 8:42 am
The trifecta box pick is Friesian Fire, Hold Me Back, and Mr. Hot Stuff. Probably will throw in Dunkirk for a superfecta box. Because throwing money away is fun.
And remember people, as Unsilent Majority pointed out a while back…the PPV is free if you bet correctly.
May 2nd, 2009 at 8:45 am
Logic tells me that manny wins, but i just cant shake the feeling that Hatton pulls it off. I think hes gonna go into the fight a bigger man. I also think a lot of pac man’s advantages come from his ability to control the ring via his jumping in and out, which i think hatton will slow by cutting down the ring (especially late in the fight. I think that hatton turns it into a brawl and takes an ugly 10th round TKO win. Let’s say a minute and a half in.
Also one more question Large. Any thoughts on getting yourself a Twitter account. I dont personally do the twittering (and i dont really believe the hype) but i do enjoy getting various bloggers and writers comments during games and such. I would definitely love to recieve some of your comments during the undercard.
May 2nd, 2009 at 9:07 am
Pac-Man by brutal knockout 1:30 in the 6th.
That stationary plodding forward head is too easy of a target for Manny.
Blood and pain on the menu for the Manc.
May 2nd, 2009 at 9:27 am
Pacquiao TKO9; 2:30 into the round.
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:23 am
Hatton TKO Round 7
May 2nd, 2009 at 11:19 am
I am a huuuuugggggee Hatton fan and strongly believe he is a top quality fighter, but I don’t think he will pull this one out. Pac-man is just too good. Hes a complete fighter with virtually no weaknesses. I’m going to say Pacquiou by unanimous decision, a virtual shut-out, 119-109 on 2 cards, 120-108 on the other.
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:20 pm
I got Hatton TKO9. DLH was a shot fighter and just didn’t throw punches. At fight time, Hatton will be heavier than DLH was and if nothing else, busy. If Hatton tastes Pacman’s power and is relatively unfazed this fight is his. DLH didn’t answer any questions about whether Pacman can take a flush punch from a healthy welterweight in their prime. Very interested to see that question answered tonight.
May 2nd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
What time do we think the main event will start? Given Game 7, the Hawks-Canucks game, and the shit-ass undercard, I need to figure out the timing of all of this.
May 2nd, 2009 at 1:57 pm
i see a repeat of the mayweather fight. hatton is in there hattoning it up in the early rounds… pacquiao is murdering him with precision punching… hatton wears down as the fight goes on… and pacman knocks him the fuck out with a “legs and arms flying every which way” uppercut early in the 10th after gravely hurting him in the 9th.
hatton laughs it off in the postfight interview and expresses how “gutted” he is about the loss and how “sensational” manny was.
and the celtics win via 1000 free throws in typical nba playoffs riggage fashion.
May 2nd, 2009 at 2:00 pm
That’s the question for me too El Mero… don’t want to spend half the night awake to watch that shit undercard.
It starts at 9pm – four undercard mismatches may be over in less than 2 hours… I do think they won’t start the Main Event before 11pm though – That’s atleast when my alarm bell will be ringing.
May 2nd, 2009 at 2:04 pm
one would think they would hold the start of the fight till the end of the game, right? assuming the game is heading into a 2nd or 3rd OT. if the undercard fights are quickies, it’s still gonna take an hour and a half or two hours to breeze through them… and by that time the game, assuming it doesn’t go into quadruple OT, would be over. there’s a three hour buffer for the game to end before i would expect the fight to start.
May 2nd, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Pac Man by UD (116-110, 116-110, 117-109). Hatton can’t box; Manny catches him a coupla times.
May 2nd, 2009 at 6:12 pm
I get a funny feeling when the general consensus runs so overwhelmingly in one direction, Hatton TKO mid 10th
May 2nd, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Pacquiao by TKO, 1:31 into the 8th.
May 2nd, 2009 at 8:40 pm
Pacquaio TKO 7, 2:20 in. Then he puts his money in a wallet that says “Bad Motherfucker” on it.
May 2nd, 2009 at 9:48 pm
Well, that just happened…
May 2nd, 2009 at 9:51 pm
yikes.
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Man….oh….man…..other than maybe Foreman-Frazier I or possibly Tyson-Spinks, that could be the biggest blow-out I’ve ever seen where both fighters have talent. If they fought 100 times, I’m pretty sure manny wins them all.
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Pacquiao is an all-time-great level talent. We’re lucky to be able to witness him fight.
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:36 pm
I don’t think Hatton was over hyped. I think people just underestimate Pacquiao. I’m afraid that all stopped tonight. It’s a shame, I was making a lot of bling on pac…
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:46 pm
Wow. Manny is a demi-god. The quickness and preciseness and the calm with which he kills are all devastating. Feel bad for Ricky. That was a self image adjustment of the highest order. Freddie roachs post fight analysis was so cold. Did not seem like false bragging they had Ricky clocked. Manny skills were on another level but that dip and clip was well oiled.
Good shit danny jacobs but keep your gloves up. Damn he looks vulnerable to hooks and overhand rights.
May 2nd, 2009 at 11:11 pm
coach roach was right, pacman 3 rounds or less. damn! it feels good to be a filipino.
May 2nd, 2009 at 11:13 pm
Good Christ.
Pacquiao is truly something else.
May 3rd, 2009 at 12:09 am
pacquiao is unbelievable. and i’d like to say i’m excited by the prospect of manny/floyd, but i’m not wholly convinced that floyd steps back in the ring after 2 years and easily dispatches of JMM.
to me, floyd’s entire career has been largely smoke and mirrors. and i don’t scoff at his mind-boggling natural ability….but i still think he lost to castillo (and he never fought stevie johnson, miguel cotto, shane mosley, or antonio “lead mitts” margarito). he has been as selectively strategic as any fighter in recent history. but JMM has the highest IQ of any fighter out there and, while floyd may be naturally bigger, who can argue that he hits harder than manny after seeing what happenened tonight? i expect a very close fight on july 18th.
and i also think clottey is definitely going to upset miguel cotto next month (in a match very similar to cotto/margarito, only with clottey offering a stronger defense early in the fight). so who does that leave for manny to fight next? mosley at a catch-weight? i only know that i’ll be watching=full-blown man crush. that left had me jumping off the couch like my ass was on fire.
May 3rd, 2009 at 3:27 am
I bow down before no one but the Pac-Man.
May 3rd, 2009 at 8:16 am
Our winner is Kent with a TKO in the fifth and multiple knockdown call. Props also to Stitchface, Paul, and Luke the Duke, all close seconds who predicted pain for the Manc.
Kent check the site for availability and holler at me at ci@nomas-nyc.com with your shirt pick and address. Also Trickster we still need to take care of you from Paul-Winky. Aaron if you are out there did you receive your package from Marquez Diaz? Sent a couple shouts your way that echoed. Please let me know.
Are the PPV numbers in? Winner on that please state your claim.
May 3rd, 2009 at 12:16 pm
I feel like the guy who bids $1 on the the Price is Right. Cheap, but I’ll take it.