posted by Large

As a match, Oscar/Manny has grown on me.

Obviously, the size issue is problematic, and it doesn’t reflect well on Oscar, who is making a habit lately of fighting smaller guys who are unlikely to hurt him very much.

But the thing I’ve come to realize is this: Who besides Margarito would we have him fight? No doubt about it, ducking Margarito is a charge that Oscar has no choice but to own up to. He said he’d fight the winner of Margarito/Cotto, and then it turned out that what he meant to say was, “I will fight the winner of Margarito/Cotto… so long as it’s Cotto.”

It’s another embarrassing moment for a guy who’s had more than his fair share of embarrassments, but with some critical distance I have to admit that it doesn’t seem such a cardinal sin to me in retrospect. Is Oscar wary of Margarito? Absolutely. But at the same time, Tony doesn’t bring a lot of PPV muscle to the table for an Oscar-level fight. A De La Hoya/Margarito PPV would be a promotional dream and do fantastic numbers, but then again, De La Hoya does good numbers whenever he fights. I certainly don’t think De La Hoya/Margs comes close to De La Hoya/Manny money. So from Oscar’s standpoint, it boils down to this – why take a risk against a killer like Margs when he can make more money and risk much less?

A younger, hungrier Oscar would have stepped into the lion’s maw and fought Margarito. I have no doubt about that. But at this point… no way. And don’t get me wrong – I would prefer to see that fight instead of seeing him take on a guy who is naturally about 20 pounds lighter than him. Coming on the heels of Mayweather and then Forbes, opting for a mighty midget like Pacquiao definitely makes the man seem a little yellow at the gills. Then again, it’s tough to go too far with the “Oscar is a pussy” accusations, because, well, just look at the guys he’s stepped into the ring with over the course of his career. That at the age of 35 he is not leaping to fight a very mean dude with not a lot of financial upside for him does not seem to be the worst case of risk avoidance the sport has ever known by a longshot.

Ruling out Margarito, then, who else? You gotta have some serious starpower to get a look from Oscar for a mega-bout, and there’s no one in his weight class with that kind of juice right now besides the ever-undeserving Mr. Hatton (who may fight Oscar in ‘09 anyway). As I pointed out last summer when Oscar was fishing around for an opponent, the only other name in the 147-160 zone was Kelly Pavlik, and given the danger quotient and size differential, that wasn’t going to happen (although now, in this post-Bernard era, one wonders… could Oscar beat Pavlik? probably not, too small…).

With such a dearth of options, he landed on Pacquiao, and ultimately, career-wise, I think he ended up taking the riskiest fight of the lot. That’s what is dawning on me as this thing gets closer and closer. If Oscar got pummelled by Margarito on December 6th, or Paul Williams, or even Pavlik, who would fault him for that? I doubt any of those guys would completely kill De La Hoya. I think Margs and Pavlik likely would give him a beating and PWill might lose. Either way, any one of that threesome against De La Hoya probably would make for a nasty, memorable fight. Win or lose, Oscar would get props for his heroism, and live to fight another mega-million-dollar day.

And that’s the question that increasingly interests me about De La Hoya/Pacquiao: What happens to Oscar’s rep, viability, sheer earning power as a fighter, if he loses this fight? If it’s close, if it goes to the cards and there’s a lot of debating about it, etc., well, then he’s probably fine, although I still think his rep takes a major hit. But if he gets soundly beaten, gets hurt early and barely makes it out on his feet? Or if he gets KTFO? What happens then? Does the mythical pay-per-view, cash cow Golden Goose survive a devastating loss to a guy who’s three weight classes below him?

I don’t think so. I think a loss to Manny would be a setback that Oscar couldn’t recover from and ultimately could spell the end of his career. After a Pacquiao loss, Floyd would never come back to fight Oscar. At that point, I actually think you could guarantee that Floyd would come back, but it would be to fight Pacquiao, which would be a ridiculous mega-PPV and a fight I’d like to see regardless of next Saturday’s outcome. But not in a million years would Floyd fight a rematch with an Oscar who lost to Manny. As for Hatton, there’s already a lot of talk about a Hatton/Pacquiao fight in London (another fight I’m itching to see, just to see Manny embarrass ole Ricky Twelve Pints on his home pub-crawlin turf). I can’t imagine that Hatton/De La Hoya would take precedence with the Fat Man after a big Pacquiao win over Oscar.

Really, I don’t see where Oscar goes after a loss to Pac Man. He could still make fights with Margo, Cotto, PWill, Pavlik even, try to claw his way back to viability with a big win over a dangerous opponent. He could do a senior tour rematch with Shane Mosley, which, with both of them coming off losses (presuming Margarito beats Shane, a big if, but a betting favorite), wouldn’t exactly be a major event. Maybe he could get Tito Trinidad to get lipo and make a fight with him in the 160 zone. Or… he could just say fuck it and retire with his face and brain intact and a mazillion dollars in the bank. Something tells me that, at this stage of his life and career, the choice would be (no pun intended) a no-brainer.

In short, in taking what most of us thought was the easy way out, I think Oscar has put his back to the wall. He’s now facing a must-win situation against a fighter of the caliber of Manny Pacquiao. Much smaller? Yes. Very VERY good? No doubt. There’s legitmate drama here, and I’m really starting to enjoy the anticipation of the spectacle. With everyone else at the Mas, I imagine, I’ll be rooting hard for Manny to pull off the upset, and may even have to lay down a few beans in his honor depending on how the odds shake down. We’ll see about that, and in the week ahead we’ll get into the nuances of what we think we’re going to see in the ring next Saturday night.