Wednesday Thoughts on Cotto/Margo: Three Days to Vegas
posted by Large
Lot of Margo action out there in No Mas Land. And I’m sure all you Margartians out there are now feeling emboldened by the fact that Teddy Atlas is picking Cotto, this the same Teddy Atlas who recently picked Tony Thompson to beat Wlad Klitschko, a stab at provocative prognostification more egregious than even that of the recent provocateur who tabbed David Diaz to handle Pacquiao.
Our recent conversation on the comments of my Monday Thoughts post ended with Tommy making the point that I was overlooking Margo’s height and reach advantage. Maybe. It’s possible that this will lead Cotto into harm’s way at a frequency that will allow Margo to break him down systematically.
Predictably, though, I don’t see it, mainly because, big though he is, Tony doesn’t really fight big. He’s at his most effective when he’s up close and personal – I can’t think of a Margo fight where I thought either his height and his reach were a real factor. And I think we all agree that this bout with Cotto will in no way resemble the classic long-versus-short fighter dynamic, Ali/Frazier, with Frazier bulling his way inside and Ali sharpshooting and trying to keep Smokin’ Joe at bay. If Cotto’s smart, he’ll spend a lot of time Saturday night in the Ali role, moving backwards at angles and letting Margo force the action while he does the sharpshooting. Check out the last four rounds of the Mosley fight to see just how effective Cotto can be in that mode. Christ, in the much ballyhooed ninth round of that fight, when Cotto was definitely hurt and on his bicycle, he still almost managed to win the round because he fought so artfully and accurately on the bike.
Of course, ceding forward motion comes with some level of risk, scorecard-wise. One thing that interests me with this fight is that the battle lines are very clear as far as outcome goes – everyone has either Cotto by decision or Margo by KO/TKO.
But as we’ve seen many times before, winning a fight on points when you’re moving backwards is a dicey proposition, because the optical illusion of forward motion always creates a sense that you are dominating the action, and in close rounds the man stepping back almost always gets the short end of the stick. In a fight that promises to be as close as this one, something like that could be the deciding factor on some very tight scorecards that hinge on a few very tight rounds. What I’m saying is that I see a very clear way that Margo could win this one by decision. He’s a workhorse, and I really think the idea that he’s going to win a war of attrition with Cotto and put him on his exhausted back is overrated. If Margo wins, there’s a very good chance that it will be on the scorecards in a very tough decision, one where Margo’s ring generalship and enormous punch output overwhelm Cotto’s more cleanly landed shots in the eyes of the judges.
On the other hand, though I am like all fight fans astonished at Margarito’s vaunted chin, I don’t think he is KO-proof by any means. Can we agree that he is about to face a challenge of a different class in both speed and power than he has ever faced before? The point that is being made repeatedly all over the internet that Cintron is a much harder puncher than Cotto and that Margo ate Cintron’s bombs like Frosted Flakes is a little bogus to my mind. Neither of these men is going to knock the other out with one big Tommy Hearns shot. A stoppage will come from accumulated damage, and the idea that Margo simply can’t be stopped is flawed because he’s never been up against this level of opposition. If Cotto is able, as I think he will be, to go all Josh Clottey on Margo and get off at will with all manner of combinations, well, it’s not inconceivable to me that Tony gets stopped, not so much because of the chin as the legs and the ribs. Because, as seems to be increasingly forgotten in the discussion of this fight, Cotto has been known to go to the body as well.
I’ll close this installment with this – I think this fight is going to be ever so slightly less pleasing skillwise than the Mosley fight, but considerably more so thrillwise. I see a fight with a few different fights-within-the-fight a la Leonard/Hearns. I think Margo is going to eat more big shots than he ever has in his career and I can see him having trouble finding a rhythm early and going down on points. Then I can imagine Cotto getting greedy and leaving himself open to that uppercut or liver-shot that queers him for a round or so and allows Tony to start feeling nice in there and even the playing field. And suddenly the hunter is the hunted. I imagine that game of cat and mouse turning around again and again and maybe even again before the final bell or someone gives out.
Only thing I can’t imagine is a wack fight. It’s funny really how much of the talk about the future is Cotto/Oscar or Cotto/Floyd when, given the limitless potential for greatness we have here, the only fight that may be an imperative come Sunday morning is Cotto/Margo II.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Thanks Large. I didn’t think I could get anymore hyped for this goddamn fight, but now, after reading this post, I’d run face first through a brick wall to get this shit on. So thanks for feeding the raging beast that is my anticipation.
Like I wanted to think about anything else this week.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Don’t forget, Atlas picked Judah over Mayweather too.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Yeah Teddy’s on like a lifelong losing streak.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Look, I think I’ma go with Large on this one. For whatever reason, I just get the sense that Margarito is not as good as the world (of “hardcore” fans especially, myself included) wants him to be and that (for whatever reason) Cotto is a bit better than anyone seems to be willing to admit. (And this has been going on with these two fighters for years now.)
My gut says Cotto in a rout (like 5-6 rounds), but, as is the case with a number of youse around these parts, it has been really hard to admit to that. Christ, I love watching Margo fight–most of all though I love his tough-guy smile. Best in the business by far. What an ice-cool dude.
And then there’s Cotto’s personality and look…
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Large-
Great commentary as always. This will definitely be the fight of the year. I can’t see it going the distance, my money is on a 8th round knockout by Cotto which will cement his rise to the top of the pound-for-pound rankings. Hopefully, floyd will come out of retirement to face cotto.
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
i know this is off topic…but did anybody catch jeff lacy on wnf? lolol…and this guy is supposed to be one of joe calzaghes career defining fights??? lol…i dont buy that joe ‘ruined’ him…or the shoulder injury did either…this guy is just basically a bum….and chad dawson wrecked mendoza….
basically..i render calzaghes domination of lacy as useless…i think way to many diehard fans are trying to be way too politically correct in giving joe c props…he works over jeff lacy(life n death with my boy peter manfredo lol)…an overhyped kessler…then wins a controversial split against a 43 year old version of b hop(alot of people had ‘nard winning)….and u guys r tellin me roy has no chance? and none of you want a part of him at +275?
July 24th, 2008 at 12:44 am
RR – Lacy was terrible. He’s just a completely clueless fighter. I think he keeps getting chances in there because he looks like he should be able to fight. But man, he really can’t. I thought he lost that thing, by the way.
I think you’re going overboard on Calzag though. I give him full props for the Kessler fight. As for the Lacy pantsing though, you’re right. We now know that Lacy just wasn’t any good to begin with.
July 24th, 2008 at 4:31 am
Wasn’t us here in Europe that hyped Lacy to heaven, right?
But Kessler is the goods… still based on resume, sure RJJ has the better one. But in the last five years? Come on Ricky, RJJ hasn’t beaten any serious fighter since Tarver in 2003 (?), and that fight was close… and No, I don’t count Titos fat brother as a serious fighter.
@Margo-Cotto:
Great fight analysis Large, way to go and keep am coming. As I said before, Margos ability to take Cottos body shots will be crucial.
July 24th, 2008 at 9:06 am
I know, I know, everyone has been wondering what The Rooster has to say about Margaritos reach and such. I have to agree with Large on this one…which I don’t do often for the record…haha! Margarito never fights from the outside and never really catches people at the end of his punches.
The Rooster is going to go against everyone on this point here. But I think if it goes deep it suits Tony more than Cotto. If it is a bruising fight towards the end if where Tony just keeps throwing punches and at high volume and I don’t think that Cotto has faced a fighter like that. Yet, if Tony doesn’t close the gap early and lets Cotto fight from a distance and lets him make it a boxing match then it will be a long night for Tony trying to come on strong. We all know that Tony is a slow starter but I think he will come out bombing in this one.
So this is what makes this fight so damn interesting. Both are tough as nails. Yet, I, contrary to many others…I’m wondering if Cotto’s chin can hold up. He’s been buzzed several times in the past…sure people will say that it was do to him trying to make weight…but even early in his career he was being buzzed.
In closing, I’m happy both men wanted to fight one another and will lace them up for us on Sat. Let us put in a little prayer that they come out of it physically fine for we all know this is going to be war.
The Rooster has spoken.
July 24th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Just layed down my action. I got Margartio by KO/TKO with 7/2 odds and Margs in the 10th & 11th at 28/1. Already had him to win at +210, but it was back down to +190 at Sportsbook.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:24 am
The waiting is killing me. I’ll be covering things over at Deadspin this weekend.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Oh, and enjoy Vegas.
Dick.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:47 am
UM, having you call me “Dick” is almost more satisfying than having Larry Holmes drunkenly call me his brother of another color.
Ryan – love your action on 10th and 11th – well played. Somehow when I go rounds like that, I always end up missing by one.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Yeah, I’ve never hit it big picking rounds before but when I saw those odds I had to put down a little somethin.
You covering the weigh-in at TSB today?
July 25th, 2008 at 11:29 am
No I’m not even there yet, still in the Bay Area. I’m leaving today, driving down.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:32 am
large-we shall agree to disagree…you think im going overboard with calzaghe…and i think people are going overboard with his lofty status…oh well
and after all that on wednesday night…they are still gonna put jeff lacy in with jermain taylor in november…i dont expect the numbers to be friendly with taylor a huge favorite…but im loading up on him no matter what the cost…cause that is easy easy money
ryan..i like your idea of of playing the 10th and 11th with margo..so i did…also put a little on the 3rd-5th….but im going with cotto….i said i wasnt gonna bet this one…but i cant resist…and im loadin up on miguel