Monday Thoughts on Cotto/Margo
posted by Large
Question thrown out to the Mas community: How do you think Tony Margarito fares against Shane Mosley?
I’ve been asking that question myself lately since I’ve been sitting around watching fights in preparation for this weekend’s donnybrook. The other day I watched back-to-back the two masterpieces of Cotto’s 2007 campaign, the Judah and Mosley fights. As for Margarito, I’ve watched the three fights I have on hand – Cintron II, Clottey and Williams. And let me tell you something, people. You know what it’s like when you go to the night session at the U.S. Open and it’s a women’s match first and you’re like, “damn these ladies be smacking that ball” but then that match ends and the dudes come out and they’re hitting the ball about a thousand times faster and it makes it seem like the women were playing in slow motion?
Well, watch Margarito/Cintron and then watch Cotto/Mosley and you’ll achieve a similar effect. Cotto/Mosley was contested at such a high level in almost every facet at which a fighter can excel that it makes Margarito’s bout with Cintron seem like Toney/Rahman. At one point during the middle rounds of Cotto/Mosley, Lampley says something like, “this is one of those fights where you just sit back and think that it’s simply amazing that human beings can do this,” and to that I say hear hear. The shit is absolutely mindblowing.
Meanwhile, Margo was outspeeded by Josh Clottey and Paul Williams, crafty fighters, neither of them in Judah or Mosley’s league. I’ll give you my two cents right now – I don’t know about Zab because you never know how he’ll fare late into a fight, but I really don’t think Margarito could beat Mosley, not the Mosley who came to fight Cotto last November. Honestly, I think he’d get killed. I don’t think he’d get knocked out, but I think he’d get schooled and lose a lopsided decision. The speed exchange rate is horrifyingly to his deficit.
Now, to be fair, Cotto barely beat Mosley that night, and a lot of people think he didn’t beat him, that the fight was at the very least a draw. Myself, I thought he tipped it, but either way. Watching both the Judah and Mosley fights back to back it’s patently clear what a skillful boxer Cotto has become, how he’s developed his jab into a veritable poleaxe, how much improved he is defensively and how mobile and creative he’s become with his combinations. And for those of you out there who doubt his chin, watch these fights and tell me that he can’t take a licking at 147. Judah and Mosley aren’t big hitters, but then again neither is Margo. Zab and Shane both connected with huge, clean haymakers on Cotto, shots of the kind that I think Margarito will have problem landing, because he just doesn’t have anywhere near Judah/Mosley handspeed or reflexes.
So, well, what I’m saying is this – go to the videotape if you can and tell me what you see. I’ve been feeling for a while that this was a pick ‘em fight, but my own recent investigations into the archive has led me to conclude that the oddsmakers may know wherefore they speak on this one. Cotto is in a different league, a league that right now I think may only have one other occupant, and it sure as hell ain’t Margo. It’s Money-O.
July 21st, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Let me preface this by saying that since about two years ago, if I had the power to make one fight in boxing, it’s been this one.
Fist of all Large, I think Tony absolutely destroys Zab. This is the same guy who faded under the pressure of Carlos Baldomir, and was starting to make Money May look like Julio Cesar Chavez by round 10.
The P-Will contest was not Margarito’s best performance to say the least. Still, I think Paul won that fight by fighting like it was an Olympic box-off. Margarito landed the cleaner, more effective punches by far in that one, and had it gone 15 (I know, I know), then I think he woulda stopped him.
As for how I think he gets to Cotto…well, Miguel’s become a monster the past year and a half, no doubt. But styles my man, styles. Tony is gonna drag him into a war by the middle rounds, and then I think the same uppercut that Judah hurt him with (and Zab does NOT have the same power as Margarito), is gonna catch Cotto. Margarito throws it often, and always in combination. That, and the fact that I’ve NEVER seen Margarito in trouble. Maybe buzzed, but I never thought watching any of his fights, that he was ever in jeopardy of getting KO’d. Can’t say the same for Miguel.
So, that’s how I see it when I go back and watch these two. Like Kellerman said in the countdown show, would you wanna be the one in the ring trying to deny Margarito in the biggest fight of his life?
Either way, all of this goes out the window Saturday. Maybe this is just the beginning of another great trilogy.
July 21st, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Oh, and as for the odds…I think the oddsmakers had it exactly right when the fight opened at near-even. It’s the general public that’s pushing Cotto out to a 2-1 status. At least, that’s my take on that.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:20 am
I feel you Large, Mosley-Cotto was superior to every Marg-fight – what a battle. And you are right, if Cotto refuses to brawl and boxes Margo “Money-style”, he will win pretty easy.
But I’m with Ryan, Margo will draw him into a slugfest – there is only one question then: Is Margos Rip-cage as strong as his iron-head? I really do think, Margo can take a lot of Cottos punches to the head (look up: Cintron, Kermit), but I haven’t seen Margo tested to the body – and boy, Cotto will hit that body.
July 22nd, 2008 at 6:31 am
I know this is off-topic, but are you going to mention Friday’s Gamboa fight?
JV
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:37 am
Boy oh Boy have I been waiting for this post.
First, I think you have written a good piece here, you have done your research and for that I give you kudos and props (which is better to get as a writer?).
I think Sugar Shane won that fight but only by a little. This is what I took from that fight.
One, as you pointed out, Cotto with every fight is improving in leaps and bounds and I can’t remember a fighter doing so in such a short period of time. Some of his bad habits are gone and no trace of them…it is like he never had them. Most boxers will revert back to their bad habits.
Two, if you look at the fight around the 9th round it seems that Cotto got his heart taken away from him. Mosley just got a bit excited when he had him hurt and couldn’t finish. Tony is a finisher!
Now on to another topic.
One, Tony was suppose to be peaking when he lost to Williams. Sure Paul Willimas is good but for a fighter that is suppose to be at his peak and lose a fight…well nto a good sign.
Two, I’m not sure what it is but when I watch Tony fight he looks so damn slow. Yet, what he has is MOFO heavy hands. He will hit your arms and anywhere his punches will land…in sum, the guy has that unexplainable strength. It is like Tim Brown…looked slow as hell with those black cleats but he was a fast guy…not on the clock but on the field.
In closing, The Rooster doesn’t know as of yet…but being Mexican he has to go with Tony by a late TKO! Notice, The Rooster didn’t put KTFO…this guys have earned my respect and anyone who walks into the Ring should get respect. I find it very disrespecting when people say KTFO.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:35 pm
first off…this is a nice little write up
i was at cotto/mosley with a couple of my boys…after the final bell i called a draw…i watched it a couple days later on tv and was agreed that cotto won by the slightest of margins…
ill be watching this fight with a bunch of boriqua cotto fans…and ive decided that i probably wont bet this fight with the book…just some side bets with some cotto fans ive teased for a few months now…to liven up the evening slightly(although i dont think that ll be neccessary)
there is a part of me that wants tony to win this fight…but theres another part of me that says it will throw floyd/cotto out the window…i firmly believe floyd will come back and fight cotto and pac and quit for good…which is why i cant see tony winning a decision unless its painfully lopsided(which i cant see happening)…arum is a crook and he will protect is cash cow in the event that it goes to the cards
i really am torn about this fight…lots of scenarios play out in my head…tony just better be careful miguel doesnt land the perfect body shot under one of his wide punches….thats all imma say
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:42 pm
I went back and watched Cotto-Mosley last night and Rooster’s right regarding the 9th rd. on. Shane looked to have Cotto hurt in both the 9th & the 10th, but just wasn’t aggressive enough. I think you gotta really sell out to finish Cotto, and Shane didn’t. That won’t be an issue w/ Tony. That, and I only saw Shane throw about 3 uppercuts that entire fight, all of which landed and were effective. Not sure I trust Uncle Evangelista enough to have Miguel adiquitly prepared to defend against it. That, and when Miguel is stunned and/or hurt, his defense is to go into brawl-mode, which won’t serve him well here.
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:20 pm
As for Cotto in the 9th against Mosley – he definitely was hurt, but I don’t think it was from a punch. It was never really explained what was wrong with him in that round, but his backing off wasn’t the result of any clear shot in the round. At the time it was suggested that he’d reinjured the lip that got so butchered in the Judah fight, but I doubt that, because that lip was so fucked up in that fight and at the time it didn’t seem to faze him at all.
So I don’t know what happened there, but I will say this – the way he responded to the situation I think bodes very well for him against Margo. You say, Ryan, that “when Miguel is stunned and/or hurt, his defense is to go into brawl-mode” and yet here was a clear case where something was very wrong with him and he did what he had to do, got on his bicycle and survived. I think at that point he realized that he was in a strong position in the fight rounds-wise and that Mosley was not going to fall. He started backing up and counterpunched and did a beautiful job of it. It waan’t the go-for-broke Cotto we’ve seen before, but it was a pro decision and it probably won him the fight.
I think back to the Cintron’s corner before the sixth round of the second Margo fight when Manny Steward was practically pleading with Kermit to box in there. “You have GOT to box this guy,” he said over and over again, and then understating the case considerably, he said, “this guy takes a good punch.”
Based on the evidence, I don’t think Cotto’s corner will have to plead with him to box Margo, and he’s become such a multi-threat boxer in there, I think he’ll overwhelm Margo’s limited repertoire. Watch that Clottey fight, and tell me how you think Clottey’s skills stack up to Cotto’s right now.
I think Cotto knows what is at stake here, and if he’s forgotten at all, Arum is no doubt there to remind him. Even then, if he stands toe-to-toe with Margo, I’m not sure he would lose, but that’s when it becomes 50/50, maybe even 60/40 to Margo, because we all agree that if someone is getting KO’ed in this one it’s going to be Cotto. But when you throw in everything else that Cotto can do, and how willing he is now to do it, well, I think the scales are weighed heavily in his favor. Based on what Clottey did to Margo, I feel like the only way Cotto can lose is if he fights a very stupid, careless fight, which is almost impossible for me to imagine.
James – Gamboa. What is there to say? At this point, when Gamboa fights a short-notice tomato-can, it’s stopwatch material. In that way, he is very Tyson. Put a mamaluc in there and the kid will not disappoint. They’ve got that Tyson problem with him now, too, because he’s still a little raw and probably not ready for the huge step-up (not worth the risk really) but when they put him in there with sub-par talent he destroys them. They gotta find him some fights where he can get some work. Darling Jimenez was actually a very good make for him on that score. They need more opposition in that class.
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Yeah, I see what you’re saying Large as far as Cotto getting on his bike after the 9th against Mosley, but I think it was more a testament of Mosley not going balls to the wall to try and stop him. Do you really think that Shane and Tony approach a hurt fighter the same way? Don’t get me wrong, I think Shane’s a better fighter than Margo, but again, I’m counting on styles and will to be the determinent here.
As for the Clottey fight…well, that was almost two full years ago. I mean, people keep bringing that fight up as if Clottey actually got the “W.” I mean, the fact that Castillo gave PBF all he could handle didn’t do much for a guy like Ricky Hatton, right? If we can’t use Torres or Chop-Chop against Miguel, it’s a little unfair to use that fight in making the case against Tony. And I’m not in the business of making excuses, but a lot has been made of Clottey’s hand in that fight. He didn’t even break it. It was a bruised knuckle. Meanwhile, Margo suffered a severe ankle sprain a week before the fight, while also dealing w/ a bum shoulder. So I don’t put much stock in a fight that he won, and did so while throwing almost 1700 punches against a certified tough-as-nails SOB in Clottey. And this fight is for the unofficial “Toughest Badass in Boxing World Title.”
I fully admit that I could end up being dead wrong on this one, Large. But right now, I have a really strong feeling that Cotto’s plans for Oscar, and later Floyd, are about to be derailed.
July 22nd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
What has Tony done since then against elite competition to make you forget about the Clottey’s and the PWill’s? Since Chop Chop and Torres, Cotto has moved up a weight class, which clearly agreed with him strength-wise, and beaten two speed merchants at 147, one of whom is a bonafide legend who brought about the best overall fight that I’ve seen in years to the table and still lost.
And let’s face it – whatever happened to Clottey’s hand, it was obviously the turning point of the fight. He was on his way to an easy decision on points and then he got hurt and he was one-handed and the thing was over. And what he had that night on Margo was raw speed, and I think Cotto right now is much faster, not to mention stronger, than Clottey.
So I stick to my guns. Cotto fights the fight that he should and this won’t be as tough a night for him as Mosley (and you still haven’t answered my initial question, Ryan – Margo/Mosley?). He tries to go all el mas macho in there and he could very well end up getting counted out, that’s a given. But I’m really seeing a UD for Cotto.
One more thing on the Mosley front – Cotto boxes and Margo’s not going to land very much in the early going, not the way Shane did. So the idea that Margo is going to break him down – I don’t know. I don’t see it, don’t see him connecting enough to get it done. I guess I just can’t imagine Cotto going out there and getting all Hagler/Hearns when he’s got the in-and-out spitfire combinations at his disposal that he displayed in the Mosley fight.
When it comes down to it, I guess I feel like this is pretty much Leonard/Duran here. There’s only one way Leonard could lose that fight to Duran, and as we all know, that’s the path he chose.
So, that said, I am very much on the fence about betting Cotto heavy in the 1 to 2 territory. I will grant you that.
July 22nd, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Also gents, just want to let everyone know that I’ll be ringside for Cotto/Margo with The Sporting News. Taking the very pregnant Mrs. Large to Vegas with me for a little R&R while Daddy does his boxing business. Most of my ringside posts will probably be over at the Sporting Blog, but I’ll try and get a little sumpin sumpin up here as well. Gonna be a hell of a night – I’m kind of juiced already and it’s only Tuesday. I can’t remember the last time I felt so certain that a fight was going to be an earthshaker.
July 22nd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Congrats on the soon to come baby Large!
I really see your arguments and my head believes them (though one shouldn’t trust your bets these days
), but I still have a feeling, that Margo will pull it off.
Btw. I feel the same attention towards the fight… with one additional suspense: That shit ain’t gonna be on TV over here… so I have to pray for a good stream… man why can’t HBO or Yahoo start selling PPVs per Stream, like they do for MMA. Sucks to miss such a great fight, but it could happen ;(.
July 22nd, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Congrats first off Large, I’ll definitely check up over at TSB Saturday. And if life had a fastforward button I’d be pressing it until it were Saturday right now.
Sorry I didn’t get to the Margo-Mosely question, I had to go back and re-read your initial post to even see what it was cause I got a bit caught up in whatever point I thought was important before. Anyway, I think Margarito-Mosely would be a great fight, and no, I also don’t agree with you that Mosely would kill him. Tough fight, and I really don’t know who would win that hypothetical matchup. I do know though, that when they co-headlined a card together (Margo-Cintron I/Mosley-Estrada?), the plan was for them to match up, and Shane wasn’t very eager to make the deal. I know that doesn’t mean much, but still, if Margarito’s such easy work for everyone (Floyd), then why is this the first time someone of stature with a great deal to lose is fighting him? It’s because they all know that they’ll have to go to the gates of hell to stop him from coming at them.
Which goes to your point in regards to elite comp…I mean, said elite competition needs to be willing to get in the ring with you, and that’s been a problem for dude most of his career. Since Williams, he’s fought twice. The first time back he knocked out an overmatched Golden Johnson in about .013 nanoseconds, and then made a top contender cry. Again. So you got me on that one, but I’ll be able to answer it for you after Saturday night, and he finally has that elite level dude under his belt.
How did you think he’d fare against Cintron? I know a lot of boxing friends thought Kermit would bounce back, beat Tony in the rematch and have a decent, world championship caliber career, and then afterwards to a man, dismissed Cintron as a nobody.
I guess we just see this playing out very differently bro. I suppose my logic all along has been Cotto + Tony = War, and in a war, Margarito > Cotto. I mean, the way your proposing it, we’re in for a pretty one sided affair, and hopefully for all of us, no matter who wins, it won’t go that way.
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:07 pm
one thing i think is missing in Large’s analysis is Margo’s HUGE height/reach advantage.
if Cotto is going to box and move in and out…well, he has to come inside to land punches. and Tony will be able to hit him first.
In the Leonard/Duran scenario, Leonard had the reach advantage.
I think that factor helps Margo immensely.
Put me in the Margarito by TKO category. He said in the Countdown show that this fight is his “consecration.” I dont even know what that means…but I feel like he will be bringing it like his life depends on it!
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Good point Tommy. To get to Tony’s body, Cotto’s gonna leave himself open to eat that vaunted uppercut I keep talkin about.
December 31st, 2008 at 4:38 pm
[...] Saturday evening’s welterweight collision between Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito, and No Mas’ Large has reviewed the former’s ‘07 bouts against Zab Judah and Shane Mosley, along with tapes of [...]