Hopkins/Pavlik: The Wackness
posted by Large
For my general thoughts on the Pavlik/Hopkins make, check my Weekly Boxing Notes over at The Sporting Blog. Below I’m just going to round out my feelings on the matter with some free-association.
Brothers and sisters, let’s face it – this was about Plan Q for Team Pavlik. Plan A was Calzaghe, Plan B was Abraham, and when those two went south, all plans from C to P (none of which were that great anyway) ended up seeming irreparably flawed.
What Pavlik is suffering from is a condition that Miguel Cotto has had for a few years now. It’s commonly known as “bound-to-hurt-you-tosis.” If you’re going to step in the ring with either of these two men, you better make sure you’ve milked the sport for every dollar it has out there for you beforehand, because these guys are man-wreckers who could, as Mickey Goldman told Rocky when he cautioned him against fighting Clubber Lang, “hurt ya poimanent“. To face them, you can bet that everyone on the list is asking for stupid STUPID money, as well they should. But the thing is, neither Cotto nor Pavlik is quite a Double Stupid Money draw yet in his own right, and so they can’t pay out comparably big dollars to their opponents. Hopefully, Cotto is going to break out of that purgatorial state by beating up on Oscar’s beautiful ass in December and gaining a big-time national profile in the process. As for Pavlik, I don’t know what the fight will be that will make him a crossover star. It’ll probably just take him a few years of regular and routinely devastating work at the elite level, because he’s charismatic, he’s got the great Rocky-like backstory, and, well… I quote Larry Holmes – “he’s got the complexion to make the connection.”
As for the actual Pavlik/Hopkins fight itself, I do not have high hopes. The best case scenario is that Pavlik walks Bernard down and knocks him the fuck out, and honestly, that is not a great scenario for me because I like Bernard and I’m really not clamoring at this stage of the game to see him get retardificated. That said, a Bernard retardification is a preferable outcome to the more likely scenario – a boring fight of Bernard’s Houdini routine that, in the absolute worst case, he manages to win on points. It’s not probable that Hopkins wins, but stranger things have happened. Pavlik does a lot of things well, but he’s not exactly the most mobile technician in there. Jermain’s frenetic mobility gave him trouble in the second fight, and Bernard is infinitely craftier than Jermain. One can definitely imagine Pavlik having some very confusing and awkward rounds against BHop, rounds that the judges would have no choice but to give to the old man.
Bernard’s main problem is that it’s inconceivable to me that he can hurt Pavlik, hurt him even a little bit. The weight gain isn’t going to mean diddly to Pavlik – he’s kills himself to make 160. I have a feeling that, like Cotto moving from 140 to 147, when Pavlik establishes himself at 168, or even 175, he’s going to be even more brutal power-wise because he’ll be stronger. And Pavlik’s chin is now officially documented at the national alert status of “granite.” Man has taken nuclear bombs from the likes of Miranda and JT – Bernard’s sneakyass one-punch-at-a-time right-hand-leads are going to hit him like mosquito bites.
Given that fact, I think Pavlik eventually will impose his will on the affair and win a lopsided decision in the kind of utterly unsatisfying affair we’ve come to expect when Bernard steps in the ring nowadays. There’s a chance for a knockout, of course – always a chance for a knockout when KO Kelly is involved. But Bernard… the man is VERY difficult to catch with a clean shot. I just don’t see it myself, don’t think Kelly has quite the sweet scientist’s IQ to figure how to trap the professor and land the big bombs. Maybe he’ll surprise me. I guess in my heart of hearts, even giving all Philly love to Ex… I guess I hope he does.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Viva Larry…I love that line.
July 18th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
It sucks that sucka Jone Jr has to jump back in the game after beating a tired ass Tito.
I was drooling at the thought of The Ghost vs Calzaghe. What about Kessler? He would at least give a more entertaining fight then B-Hop.
And Hopkins is a hard man, but he keeps playing with fire, and Kelly can bring it, he might get really hurt. I don’t know how involved he is with GB, but he has to start thinking about hanging them up.
July 18th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Well if it brings us Calzaghe-Pavlik, why not. I’m really interessted, if Kelly has to stink it out Calzaghe-style or if he can beat B-Hop more convincingly.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Pavlik will definitely make a case for superstar status if he ruins BHop. And it’s not impossible. The fact that Bernard’s punches will have such minimal impact on Kelly definitely makes you wonder how he plans to hold off the onslaught. Then again, other than that flash knockdown, Bernard’s punches didn’t do all that much to Calzag either, and look at what happened there. Calzaghe is a much more agile fighter than Kelly too. So I don’t know – that big exclamation point “time to retire, BHop” execution style knockout still feels like a longshot to me. Bernard is a survivor.
Kessler, Luke, is sadly nowhere with the American audience. They just skated by with that Lockett debacle, and though us boxing fans know that Kessler is no Gary Lockett, for this fight I think Team Pavlik felt like they needed some kind of draw on the B-side.
What’s really going to be fun in this is hearing Bernard talking in press conferences like he’s the A-side. I bet he believes that, God love him.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
I don’t really know what I think about this fight yet. I guess the most likely scenario is Bernard grabbing and slipping his way through a boring, yet close distance fight. Still, Kelly’s proven to be a pretty badass middleweight champ and I wasn’t impressed w/ B-Hop in the Calzaghe fight (nor was I impressed w/ Cal either). So Kelly definitively beating the man who only a prime Roy Jones beat definitively would be a big deal.
Anyway, I’ll watch, but I’d still rather have seen anyone of the first few choices.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
this fight kinda makes me wonder if bob arum is throwing a bone to hopkins and golden boy in order to get pacman or cotto the last de la hoya fight
the worst case scenario for pavlik and fans is that he stinks the joint out and wins a decision based on his work rate…ala joe c wales…and lets face it…as i said before cal/ex…nobody ever looks good against ex….but i think pavlik should be able to land his jab at will…and as much as i respect ‘nard…i hope that jab measures him up for queer street
what scares me though is how much of a chance i think roy has at the garden…i cant wait to see a line on this…im all over roy…i just hope he comes to fight…part of me really wants roy to pull this off…but what scares me is…if joe wins…will he def fight pavlik? that is no guarantee…and i dont want pavlik to be robbed of what could be a career defining fight against calzaghe…because lets face it…after abraham…there isnt alot out there for kelly
July 18th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
I wanna see Abraham in there. He’s the guy to beat. Artur could knock a Welsh out. He even fights with a broken jaw and puppy eyes…
And as for Kessler, I agree with Large: he means nothing in the states. But as far as boxing goes, I’m not sure Pavlik could lick that guy.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Be a very tough fight for Kelly, Kessler. I’m with you Gabriel. Although I saw kesslers last fight on a torrent and I thought he looked a little halfass. Love to see him fight Pavlik though. Be a rock em sock em kind of thing.
July 19th, 2008 at 4:48 am
After sleeping one night bout it, I start to like that fight. Atleast it will give proof bout Calzaghes performance against B-Hop (which I still do think was pretty good. He changed tactics after seeing, that he can’t hit Hops cleanly and just overwhelmed him). If Kelly knocks Hopkins out, Damn that’s an achievement. If he has to stink it out too, than it just proofs that Hopkins is extremly difficult to fight.
@Ricky roe: No offense, but I think it’s crazy to bet on Roy in this one. Yeah he was great 7 years ago (and well matched), but dude will get hurt against Calzaghe. Father time has to pull out the big hammer on Joe, otherwise he will destroy this shell of Roy.
But is’s okay, everyhting that leads to Joe-Kelly is good. It would be a great fight I assume. Puncher against slick boxer is always great. (Just look at Kessler-Calzaghe.. sure it lacked drama, but what a boxing experience).
One word for Kessler, he is a beast in my opinion and would give erverybody up to 175 hell. He has just a stupid managment. If he had taken the miranda fight, he’d be in the US-public-eye by now…. what a shame, now he is back fighting real bums.
July 19th, 2008 at 10:40 am
@Trickster
Well, that bum happened to be a contender for the wba crown, with a 22-0 record. I mean, sure it wasn’t a great payday for Kessler, but he just won a championship that night…
I think after the Calzaghe fight he needed an “easy” opponent. Fighting Miranda then would have been stupid. When you do 12 near perfect rounds against a guy and lose an UD, it ruins your confidence. In the first rounds of the Sartison fight, you could hear his corner say “relax, don’t be tight. Be confident.” He’s back now and a Miranda fight is something they’ll consider I’m sure.
July 19th, 2008 at 10:58 am
I’m sorry Gabriel, but Sartison was a bum.. atleast he was not proven, look at his record at boxrec, dude hasn’t fought a man with a pulse before Kessler (his 18th fight was against someone with a 7-13 record).
Considering that “belt” that Kessler won… it’s a joke, and everybody who knows boxing knows that. Great, now he has mandatories to fight and yes, they can promote him as “World Champion” again… but look at the PR Abraham got for that easy win over Miranda. That’s were money and good fights are made.
And I guarantee you, Kessler would have wiped the floor with Miranda, confident or not. Now, AA has demolished him and a fight means nothing at all.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
trickster…i can totally understand why youd think its crazy…but ive gotten roy at +300..and its gone down to +275 since…and ill be happy if it continues to go down because im already locked in…if it goes up…ill reload…id tell you why in my own words…but i thin vivek wallace summed it up alot better…so let me quote
“I think this fight will leave many stunned in the end results. Many have written Roy Jones Jr. off and subsequently placed Calzaghe at the top of the P4P contention list. Consider what a spectacle this really is….You have a guy who is undefeated, and knows that if he wants to solidify his greatness, he has to win one more match against a still deceptively formidable opponent. Then you have arguably one of – if not – the most talented fighter in the past decade and a half, who has been knocked off of his high horse, only to rise again from basement level ashes with the chance to effectively touch the stars! What better script can be drawn? You literally have two men who are damn near willing to die in the ring to secure what could be a final cadence. People talk about age, but this kind of fight is living proof why there is never a bad time for a good fight. I spent a little time around Roy Jones Jr. in the final days before his fight with Trinidad at the press gatherings and I can tell anyone who dares to listen, the guy has his pep back in his step. The speed was there, the flamboyance was there, the ego was there, and in the fight, the action was there. If he can bring that all to the ring again, honestly, I pity the fool that chooses to bet against him. Not to say him winning is a lock, but Calzaghe prepared harder for Hopkins than he has prepared for anyone in his career, and he fought at a weight that he felt would help him transfer his power better, yet he still walked away with only a split decision victory against a very cautious fighter that didn’t throw much throughout the fight. One thing about Roy, he will not only throw, but throw in combinations, and group his shots alot better than Hopkins did. Calzaghe is obviously fast so that means with both guys scoring frequently, this won’t be an easy one to judge. Hey, I don’t know about you, but I plan to be on the first bird smokin’ to NYC come mid September, and my bags will probably be packed a good week prior too. This is one fight I wouldn’t want to miss for the world!”
not only will he throw more than 10 punches a round…hell throw combos…and probably sit down on a few punches too…if roy stays off the ropes(so he doesnt let joe score with bs combos)i think he has a great chance
and by the way…ive seen josh clottey fight a handful of times..and i know how underrated n dangerous he is…but zab at +200 is too good to pass up
July 19th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
On an airplane Ricky and I only had time to read the first few lines of that quote you put in there but I had to say just one thing about it – Brother Roy is mos def not willing to die in the ring against anyone. The way he fought that last Tarver fight was about the most safety-firstenest I’ve ever seen a man in a bigtime prizefight.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
haha well i wont sit here and defend that line too much…cause yer probably right…but i think wallaces point is…that roy is a bit rejuvenated…at least his confidence is…hes not fighting a guy with a knockout punch and coming off two ko losses in a row
July 20th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Umm, Roy Boy is gonna get worked. And I’ve always liked Judah, but Clottey is all wrong for him. Please tell me you like Cotto next week Ricky.
July 20th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Ryan, son, are you kidding me? Ricky be loving him some Margarito in that thang. He’s been talking that up since the fight was made. And at +205, I don’t know. I like Cotto too, but 2 to 1 is nice odds on a bruiser like Margo.
July 21st, 2008 at 9:23 am
I’m not sure I like this fight for Pavlik either. After the second fight with Taylor I had the thought that if Taylor had been a bit craftier ala Hopkins, he might have beaten Pavlik. Kelly is still a pretty basic fighter – mostly one twos w/no “special effects” as Floyd would say. B-hop is as crafty as it gets and he can break down and nullify even the craftiest fighters (see Winky Wright). A prime Hopkins beats Pavlik in a great fight. Can a clearly past his prime B-Hop compete with a prime Pavlik? We’ll see. Pavlik is going to have to bring more than just volume and one-twos.
Regarding Roy and Joe C., this is another one where you wonder just how much the older fighter has left. In his prime, Roy wins – even Calzaghe has stated that the best 168 of all-time is Roy and not him. What intrigued me about the Jones-Trinidad fight was how lightly Roy took Tito. Roy was clearly just loading up and trying to blow Tito out early. Consequently, he didn’t land much (as Tito isn’t great but not a rank amateur either, defensively) until he settled down and just boxed. Roy has struggled with southpaws in the past (Tarver, Harding, Del Valle) – it’s hard to imagine a past prime Roy winning this. I agree his skill set is different than B-hops – he’s quicker and hits harder. But when Joe C. gets into amateur mode – where he’s just pitty-patting and getting out, he’s hard to beat. Joe C. by decision.
July 21st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
The odds are totally out of whack for Cotto-Marg, Large. Not only am I taking Tony heavily, but I really think this thing should still be at where it opened, which if I remember correctly, it was something like -115 for Cotto and -105 for Tony. Either way, I’m all over it at +210. And probably a little somethin on the under too.
November 18th, 2010 at 9:29 am
Drago, he had all those Soviet era steroids running through his veins…Clubber only had a mohawk. Not to mention, look what Drago did to Creed. No contest.
November 18th, 2010 at 9:36 am
I pitty the fool who picks Clubber. Drago in 2.
November 18th, 2010 at 9:37 am
Drago 9 rounds
November 18th, 2010 at 9:39 am
apollo creed, by far!!