posted by Large

A lot of people hated on the Pacquiao/Diaz matchup after it was made, mostly because of the fallout of the Marquez decision and the controversy it generated.

But look, say what you will about the man – Bob Arum knows what he’s doing. This move up to 135 for Pacquiao to face a Davis Diaz-caliber fighter has just enough of a question mark on it to make it interesting, and yet not enough of one (the CW would have it) to put Pac Man in serious jeopardy. Diaz is hard as nails but he’s not a puncher. He takes a great shot, he’s a big lightweight, he throws a lot of power punches, he likes to mix it up. On the whole, he’s perfect for a kinetic brawler like Pacquiao, a perfect match to make a fight that, so the Pac Man Team hopes, will be dramatic and worthy of its status as a pay-per-view headliner and yet also in the end a borderline easy outing for their man, one that will leave him in great shape for the third leg of the Marquez trilogy next year with each man potentially holding claims on the lightweight title (provided, of course, JMM beats lineal champ Jose Casamayor this fall, a big if indeed).

And hey, that may very well be the way it turns out. But for me, I don’t know. The built-in questions for this fight are more than just a PPV tease to my mind. There are legit issues to be addressed here and they give me pause in the planning of the Pacquiao parade.

Size is probably the least of the question-marks. Yes Diaz is a big 135, and he will undoubtedly be the bigger man in the ring tomorrow night. But Pac has been weighing in at close to 150 for fight night lately and word was that making 130 was nearly killing him. He’ll be comfortable at 135, and though Diaz will provide a little more mass in there than he’s used to, I doubt it’s going to be the point on which the whole thing turns.

The more reasonable question about the size issue concerns punching power. While I feel positive that Pac Man will be solid at 135, will he bring his power with him? Especially against a guy like Diaz who can eat a shot or two and keep on bringing?

And then consider this – Diaz is a southpaw. The last time Manny fought a fellow southpaw was in 2004, the less-than-mighty Fahsan 3K Battery. For all the talk about how Pacquiao has become a much more complete fighter than in his barnstorm days of left-hand larceny, the fact remains that the straight left remains the fighting essence of Pac, and the straight left against a southpaw who comes in low, a la Diaz, is not exactly the first punch you think of to carry the fight.

Then you consider that Manny has been, if not deteriorating over his last few fights, at least showing signs of slowing down. This is where I really begin to wonder if this couldn’t turn out to be yet another upset in what’s shaping up to be The Year of the Upset. We know that Pac likes the night life, that he hates the gym, that Freddie Roach never knows where the hell he is. We know that in the Philippines he’s bigger than Jesus, Jagger and Jordan combined. I can’t help but ask you people – has Manny Pacquiao lost the eye of the tiger?

Because if he has, David Diaz is the right fighter to capitalize on it. See, out here in the real world, the Clubber Langs of the world never get to expose a man who’s lost his tiger-eye. The Clubber Langs are just too good – even when they’re coming up in the ranks, no one mistakes a Clubber Lang for an “opponent” – no one goes in the ring soft against a guy like that.

But the David Diaz’s of the world, the unspectacular workhorses who fear no man and who can take a licking and keep on ticking – these are the guys who the marquee names take for granted, and these are the guys who are ripe to pull off the shocker. Diaz is known for his stamina and his work rate. He likes to stay on top of his man. He’s got a good beard and he sets up well to neutralize Pac’s true knockout threat, the left hand down the pike. If Diaz is going to win tomorrow night, I see it happening in classic boxing upset fashion, which is generally a three-point plan:

1. The favorite goes out and finds his man very easy to find – he rocks him and socks him and the crowd calls out for blood.
2. The underdog just won’t fall – in fact, he gives almost as good as he gets.
3. The favorite, perhaps not having put in as much time in the gym as he might have, wilts early, and the upstart, still fresh as a daisy, starts piling up rounds.

So all right, all right, thanks Large, that’s what an upset often looks like, no doubt, thanks for laying that out for us like that. But is it actually going to happen?

I confess that my instincts are telling me to play it safe because I’ve been on such a losing streak with the prognostificating of late. And yet, we’re all baseball fans here, we know that when you’re mired in a slump you have to get creative. So fuck it, I’m doing it, I’m succumbing to the Sacred Tao of Damn the Torpedoes on this one and following my crooked heart. I call Diaz in a decision, a close but unanimous decision (if it’s close enough to be a split, Manny will win). There are just too many upset warning signs for me floating around out there, and I think Pac Man is ripe for the taking while Diaz is ripe to be overlooked. The Prognostificator has spoken – may the Force be with me.

(P.S. The powers that be here at No Mas have furnished me with five c-notes as my newly minted No Mas Gambling Kitty. And trust me people, I have to make that shit last. I welcome you to follow the progress of The Prognostificator here at the Mas and play along if you like. Let me throw in a word to the wise, though – while last year I couldn’t call a fight wrong if I’d tried, this past few months I’ve been an absolute mess. Follow my path at your peril until I get this whammy off my back. This week I’m being conservative with my wager, 50 babaloons on Diaz to win 175 at +350. And my admonitions aside, let me just say that even if you don’t think Diaz is going to win, at +350 he’s worth a bloody good look wouldn’t you say? If I was feeling really bold, I might even lay a few beans on Diaz to win by decision at 6-1…)